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The absolutely worst option is that they achieve a modicum of success, and then there are multiple, competing, incompatible networks.

We know from Metcalfe's law that a network that takes up half the available audience doesn't have 1/2 the value to users; it has 1/4 the value. The division makes each network much worse.

Most people and companies, when presented with the choice, won't bother. They'll wait until someone else figures it out.