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There's a few threats to the Fediverse.

Here's what I think they are:

1. Google extending their dominance into Fediverse search

2. Jack Dorsey's crypto obsessiveness (see Nostr)

3. Cloudflare's Mastodon competitor (Wildebeest)

4. A16Z investment in Towns -- which is just Matrix with crypto pixie dust

5. Developers' myopic focus on Mastodon to the detriment of the rest of the Fediverse