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So I spend a lot of my free time studying history, cultures, people; as technical (and antisocial) as I may seem, I am really the kind of person that thinks about people. After you read enough history books, autobiographies, diaries, interpretations... you start to see patterns, and a really fun thing to do is try to extrapolate from those patterns. This here is me attempting to extrapolate those patterns, using the impetus of a MAGA-victory in 2024 leading to a secession of the Left Coast, a triggering of the US Continuity of Government, New York City and New England join the Left Coast to become the Elitist faction (Woke Team America: World Police) in opposition to the MAGA faction (US Continuity of Government). I also thought it would be fun to include the "Tom" story from the infamous greentext, adapted to things I had learned from books like The Nine Nations of North America, Man in the High Tower, The Populist Delusion (I'm not done with it but it's a good read), and alternate histories like Fallout: Old World Blues.
The US Continuity of Government is the big red button, but it is fraught with problems: for one, the heartland of the country is extremely vulnerable until all loyal reservists have been mobilized. This is what allows Tom to do what he ends up doing: bombing the highway interchange between the I-55 and I-64, as well as other interstates crossing the Mississippi and intersecting the I-55, all but dividing the country in half. All transcontinental traffic must now travel north along the I-57 until it reaches one of the northern routes, which snow over. This failure on the part of the US COG only emboldens states ready for independence; Texas tries to go first but Utah beats them to the punch, declaring themselves Deseret. Texas soon follows restoring the Lone Star Republic to its former glory, and then Idaho and western Montana break away too, joining Deseret for reasons of Mormons and the Aryan Nation.
With support now completely cut off and logistics taking twice as long, most military bases west of the Mississippi will suffer with the exception of places like the Nevada Nuclear Test Site and the various nuclear sites dotted around Oregon and Washington -- the most important bases to maintain in the event of COG. States-to-be like the Inland Empire, State of Jefferson, and Silver State will make the West... very Western again, with essentially all parties in a battle-royale for resources, weapons, bases, anything they believe is rightfully theirs. Many West Coast naval bases will go to TA:WP, splitting the impressive US navy and ending any trade interdiction they might have taken part in around Europe, but USCOG will retain Alaska and a rebellious Hawaii -- it will be the Navy which ends up being the common interest of both major factions.
Some interesting asides about the map:
The "Black Belt" as it's called make it really difficult to work out what the South would end up looking like. I took into consideration the Gulf's oil reserves and decided that, like Las Vegas, money will be more important than ideology there leading to a very different, but equally free buffer in the area that will undoubtedly misuse the population, either consciously or unconsciously, to maintain the financial interests in the Gulf. This means mercenary navies, especially if the Mexican cartels are emboldened by the collapse.
Phoenix and most of New Mexico are kind of fucked. I just can't work out a way they remain stable without creating direct conflict with their sister-cities in Las Vegas, Salt Lake City, and Denver; their water demands would become too great, too fast without too many bargaining chips with which to play. In addition to that, the devil's at their doorstep and the walls can't be built fast enough.
This is just a me-thing, but I see Reno/Tahoe becoming very competitive, economically, with Las Vegas, as tourist destinations in the United States will go down and people will need neutral places where they can, well, pretend that what is done in Vegas stays in Vegas, as it were. Between high-diversity, high-economic, low-ideological areas and Indian reservations, there are a lot of mercenaries on the table just in general west of the Mississippi.
Mexico is something I'm still struggling to get right; on the one hand, glowies will have to refocus their resources and interests elsewhere, except where cartel interests are directly aligned -- making the fight in some ways more fair and some ways less fair between the cartels in Mexico. Without a big brother in the United States to send troops constantly, the illusion of a contiguous Mexico is lost and Mexico Libre, the "rightful" government resistance, is now fighting on three fronts with the most dangerous drug cartels in the world.
Canada... Let's not worry about Canada for right now; when I started, I gave the Great Plains back to the Great Plains, because if Quebec or Vancouver leave, this area becomes a key point for Canadian transcontinental trade, and to get what they don't have they trade away that bargaining chip. Alberta goes first, though, because Deseret. Really, it's a pretty chaotic alternate-future model that I've put together here, but so much research and love went into it as well -- not that it ends here.
There's a lot more coming around these thoughts. I don't know if I can answer all you questions right away, but I'm gonna keep plucking away at this thing until I have more than just a map. A huge thanks to a handful of people who have been chatting with me while I pull this together; I love you guys and thank you for putting up with my weird shit.
A map of a very divided United …