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@mhoye
My •extremely• limited understanding of the “it’s just noise” argument is that there •may• be room in the data for a gentler conclusion from the data:

Everyone’s self-assessment is inaccurate in •both• directions (over- and under-estimating), but experts may be slightly less inaccurate. We don’t have evidence that ignorance comes with •bias•, but it might come with greater •noise•.