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   Kees van der Leun (sustainable2050@mastodon.energy)'s status on Friday, 17-Apr-2026 12:20:34 JST Kees van der Leun

   in reply to

   And it's more complicated than that. At Common Futures, we recently learned from Swinda Falkena (Utrecht University) that a subsystem of AMOC, the Subpolar Gyre south of Greenland, could shut down much faster than AMOC as a whole. This can have a profound effect on climate in NW-Europe within a few decades. Iceland and Scotland are most at risk, but the Netherlands is also in the sphere of influence.

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     Kees van der Leun (sustainable2050@mastodon.energy)'s status on Friday, 17-Apr-2026 12:20:35 JST Kees van der Leun

     New research combined real-world ocean observations on the AMOC circulation with a range of climate models to determine the most reliable, and this hugely reduced the spread of uncertainty.
     They found an estimated slowdown of 42% to 58% in 2100, a level almost certain to end in collapse of AMOC.
     https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2026/apr/15/critical-atlantic-current-significantly-more-likely-to-collapse-than-thought

     Steve's Place repeated this.