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   Rich Felker (dalias@hachyderm.io)'s status on Saturday, 28-Mar-2026 22:07:22 JST Rich Felker

   Hmm, prediction markets are evil in general and I'm pretty much entirely opposed to their existence.

   But it would be kinda hilarious to bet huge amounts of money that a 2048-bit RSA key won't be cracked by 2050.

   • Embed this notice
     Rich Felker (dalias@hachyderm.io)'s status on Saturday, 28-Mar-2026 22:12:22 JST Rich Felker

     in reply to

     Fortunately I don't think there's any way to set up such a bet. Someone would have to know the factors to generate the key, and they could use/leak that knowledge to cheat.

   • Embed this notice
     Wanja (muvlon@hachyderm.io)'s status on Saturday, 28-Mar-2026 22:12:38 JST Wanja

     in reply to

     @dalias It might be doable with some secure multiparty computation shenanigans. You can still break the crypto used for *that* instead of RSA2048 but if set up correctly that's probably harder.

   • Embed this notice
     Rich Felker (dalias@hachyderm.io)'s status on Friday, 03-Apr-2026 20:43:19 JST Rich Felker

     in reply to

     • Demi Marie Obenour

     @alwayscurious No, at least not known. For EC that works because the entire range (essentially) is valid public keys so you can just pick a random public key. But with RSA the valid public keys (semiprimes) are extremely sparse.

   • Embed this notice
     Demi Marie Obenour (alwayscurious@infosec.exchange)'s status on Friday, 03-Apr-2026 20:43:20 JST Demi Marie Obenour

     in reply to

     @dalias Is there a method (indistinguishability obfuscation?) to generate the key without knowing the factors?

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     Rich Felker (dalias@hachyderm.io)'s status on Tuesday, 07-Apr-2026 03:53:25 JST Rich Felker

     in reply to

     • Demi Marie Obenour

     @alwayscurious I might be more inclined to agree if there were any examples of him being right about something in this domain.

   • Embed this notice
     Demi Marie Obenour (alwayscurious@infosec.exchange)'s status on Tuesday, 07-Apr-2026 03:53:26 JST Demi Marie Obenour

     in reply to

     @dalias When it comes to quantum computing, I don’t recommend betting against Scott Aaronson. When it comes to cryptographic algorithm selection, I don’t recommend betting against Filippo Valsorda.

   • Embed this notice
     Rich Felker (dalias@hachyderm.io)'s status on Tuesday, 07-Apr-2026 04:24:42 JST Rich Felker

     in reply to

     • Filippo Valsorda
     • Demi Marie Obenour

     @alwayscurious @filippo It's a very reasonable hedge from a cryptographic strategy perspective. I don't see disagreement as "betting against him". The nature of a hedge is that he's right either way. I just don't see the hedge as necessary, and that's from a physics perspective not a crypto perspective.

   • Embed this notice
     Demi Marie Obenour (alwayscurious@infosec.exchange)'s status on Tuesday, 07-Apr-2026 04:24:43 JST Demi Marie Obenour

     in reply to

     • Filippo Valsorda

     @dalias I’d rather not bet against @filippo either.