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   Minoru Saba (minorusaba@toad.social)'s status on Tuesday, 06-Jan-2026 08:41:16 JST Minoru Saba

   "...if USA offers concessions to Russia on Ukraine, it would likely exacerbate anxieties in Tokyo about whether Washington could do something similar to China regarding Taiwan"

   "...what implications would it have on Japan's plans if the United States threatens to reduce its current [Indo-Pacific] force posture"

   "[What if] Washington begins to call into question Japan's role in the alliance"
   https://www.rand.org/pubs/commentary/2025/06/us-japan-ties-perfect-like-before-or-changing-it-all.html
   🔸Probably explains Japan's recent stance re Venezuela
   https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20260104/p2g/00m/0na/022000c

   • Embed this notice
     Minoru Saba (minorusaba@toad.social)'s status on Wednesday, 07-Jan-2026 08:58:14 JST Minoru Saba

     in reply to

     🔸Likewise Britain's stance:
     "...to understand why Yvette Cooper studiously avoided saying whether the UK viewed the kidnapping of Nicolás Maduro as a breach of international law...on Monday night, a joint statement was expected in [Paris] by the coalition of the willing – and a draft included the US promising binding security guarantees to protect Ukraine..."
     https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/jan/06/yvette-cooper-criticise-trump-venezuela-ukraine
     🔸It's like trying to avoid provoking "terrible twos" temper tantrums from the heffalump in the driving seat