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Alex: Frontier Math Tier 4 consists of math problems that professional teams of mathematicians would take few weeks to solve. These are very hard math problems. And over the past week and a half or so, we've seen first Gemini 2.5, Deep Think and then GPT5 Pro demonstrate breakthrough performance. GPT5 Pro at 13% on Frontier Math Tier 4. And I've Dave insisted that I make an internal recorded prediction for for just to get on the record what would it mean for math to be solved in quantitative terms. And and this is months ago. And I put on the record as as Dave will I think attest we can reasonably declare that math has been solved when Frontier Math tier 4 passes 10% scoring. So more than 10% of the problems can be solved by a bleeding edge model and and the reason why I picked 10% is because at some point in the logistic regression of like predicting you know you've solved 10% at some point you just pour compute on and you get more results. I think we've seen this over and over again. We saw this infamously with Ray Kurzweil pointing out that you're you're halfway complete with sequencing the human genome once you've passed 1%. 10% is sort of my my arbitrary benchmark. I predicted that we would be past this by the end of this calendar year. Christmas arrived early. Math is on now on a trajectory if you just pour more compute on arguably with no new innovations, math will be solved. At least math as we currently know it.
Peter: Okay. So, when math is solved, I've asked you this before, but I just want to hit it home because it's a kind of an esoteric subject for most most people. What does it mean when math is solved? What's the implications for, you know, all of our subscribers here?
Alex: It's the ultimate canary in the coal mine, as it were, for solving physical sciences, solving engineering, solving medicine. If if we can have machines that solve arguably humanity's most rigorous intellectual endeavor, which I would suggest is math, then everything else I would expect over the next few years, call it 5 to 10 years, I expect to come.
Alex-Wissner Gross and Peter Diamandis, Moonshots 201
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@TrevorGoodchild @judgedread what if like toothpaste you can't stuff the telomeres back in
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@judgedread Medicine will be far harder, sadly. But work on antibiotic design and tailored cancer therapy is absolutely worth pursuing
The holy grail will be cellular anti-senescence therapies. A fountain of youth.
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@sickburnbro @judgedread What if you can delay their shortening though?
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@TrevorGoodchild @judgedread yeah, that's probably what will be possible, if anything.
Honestly what I want is not to live 300 years, but to live 90 and be as fit as 30 until one night I go to sleep and my body just goes "ok, it's time, end game"
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@TrevorGoodchild @judgedread imagine how far we could be if we had just decided to continue into space in the 60s. I could be sitting in my personal office tower peaking out of the clouds on Venus
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@judgedread I have no doubt that we will get there. It's simply a matter of when. Once the core concepts have been understood (they are) it's a matter of scale and persistent kaizen engineering
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@TrevorGoodchild Life being the most complex arrangement of matter we know of that comes as no surprise. Rumors are swirling that a path to nanotech may have been found, possibly a product of cracking protein folding.
Judge Dread
Bread up, Bro
Trevor Goodchild:verified::pondering_orb:
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