Sarah Taber
US farmers are saying they "just need temporary help, until things get better."
Here's the thing. US farm exports- which are mostly soy- CANNOT get better.
Other countries expanded their soy industries to fill China's demand.
We've walled ourselves out of the global market, folks. This is it.
Sarah Taber
The thing is, this isn't even the first time US ag has wrecked itself with foolish trade wars.
In the runup to the Civil War, US cotton plantations decided to stop exporting cotton. Why?
Because the British Empire's textile mills ran on cotton from US plantations.
Sarah Taber
Without Southern cotton, the British textile industry would be brought to its knees.
And that would force the British Empire- with the world's most powerful navy- to help the US South in its fight for "freedom."
At least, that's what cotton plantation owners THOUGHT would happen.
Sarah Taber
Ope this is going off
Ok folks! My Congressman is a MAGA clown who's on multiple ag committees.
As a farmer, I need ag policymakers with a spine who tell Trump no.
So for every donation to Kim Hardy, who's running against my
Congressman, I will post one (1) ag fact.
Sarah Taber
Farm fact: the South is famous for clayey red soil, but a lot of it is actually... sand. Like beach sand. See the yellow on the map here.
Why? It IS beach sand. That's where the shoreline was during the Cretaceous.
Sarah Taber
By the time the US Civil War was over, so was the US cotton industry.
Egypt had ramped up to growing so much cotton, nobody really needed any from the US South anymore.
Sarah Taber
This is why "Egyptian cotton" is a thing now!
Egypt grew a little cotton before all that, but not a "main export industry & household name" amount.
Sarah Taber
This is why it's so important that US agriculture quit its "positive vibes only!" strategy and actually learn from its own mistakes.
So we can stop repeating them already.
Anyway, here's the next Egyptian cotton: Argentine & Brazilian soybeans.
https://mishtalk.com/economics/us-soybean-exports-to-china-drop-to-zero-argentina-and-brazil-win/
Sarah Taber
What actually happened? Egyptian cotton.
With lots of fertile farmland and desperate for something to sell for cash on international markets,
Egypt's leadership dumped resources into building up cotton farming in Egypt.
Andres
@sarahtaber How come the south stayed sandy, while the portion of ocean going up through the dakotas/montana/saskatchewan got "great plains material" soil?
Sarah Taber
Ok farm facts are back!
China is so much of the global soybean market, you can't make up losing them by selling to other countries. There isn't enough soybean demand in the world to fill that dent.
And farmers... know that.
Sarah Taber
Trees like "well drained soil," which is just fancy words for "it doesn't get soggy."
Nothing stays un-soggy like sand. Every time it rains, the water runs right through it like a sieve.
Yeah that's annoying sometimes! If it STOPS raining for a week the crops panic!
But it sure is well-drained
Sarah Taber
Ok time for a quick dinner break, will be back later tonight with more FARM FACTS
Sarah Taber
This has Certain Consequences for agriculture in the South!
Your classic grain belt-type farming- grain, silos, tractors, livestock to eat all the grain- is what the US considers "real farming."
And it likes big flat plains.
Sarah Taber
So when there's big flat plains in the US, that's kinda what we like to do.
But in the South? Our big flat plains are mostly deep, DEEP coastal sand.
And grain DOESN'T LIKE SAND
We aren't gonna thrive trying to play the Midwest's game on sand y'all. What are we doing
Sarah Taber
Attempting to farm Midwest-style on sand has led a lot of people to describe Southern soils as "bad."
This is false. Slanderous, even.
Sand is great!
Root crops love it! It's soft! Long skinny roots like carrots can push downward without hitting rocks or clay pans & turning into this
Sarah Taber
The farm sector chose to help bring Trump to power. They chose to engage with him as you would an all-powerful dictator.
Because they saw that making him one is a good way to get easy money.
I know we have a folklore of farms being, like, the traditional beating heart of democracy. A nd that's such a nice idea!
But this is what's really happening.
Sarah Taber
We need to see how much work the farm sector's doing to undermine our republic. We need to name this for what it is.
I want farmers to think very carefully about if this is the kind of country we want to leave for our kids.
And if it's not, we need to wake up and do the work it takes to live in a free country.
Sarah Taber
And the farm sector won't criticize Trump or his actions. It's not "Hey Trump your policies stink." It's "We love you but this'll be hard for us…Money please!"
That's the dictatorship playbook.
Kiss the dear leader's ring. Support him. Expect kickbacks.
Sarah Taber
And most of all, ignore Congress. Do not even acknowledge that there are supposed to be checks & balances protecting you. That would ruin the illusion of an all-powerful strongman on top- that you desperately want to be real.
Because no sane country, where leaders are accountable to voters, would ever decide to bail out people who openly & freely voted to destroy their own business.
Sarah Taber
I'm sure they're not putting it in those words to themselves. But... that is the only other option.
So now we need to talk about how the US is emerging into a dictatorship right now, and how agriculture has thrown in its lot with that happening.
Sarah Taber
When Trump bailed out farmers in his first term, that was executive branch orders. Congress had nothing to do with it.
So already setting up a pattern of "Who cares about checks & balances? Or how Congress is supposed to be in charge of the US's budget? I'm gonna rule unilaterally. Like a king. And you support me, so I like you, and here's your money."
Sarah Taber
And that's what I'm seeing this time around as well.
Congress can stop the trade war, AND budget bailouts.
But the farm sector isn't even bothering to ask Congress for anything.
It's all pleas, for money, directed towards Trump himself.
Sarah Taber
We had to be ready to pivot away from bulk exports to China.
To do that, it takes leadership that knows how.
That means both the technical know-how on investing in new crops, AND the will to do so. Leadership that isn't in the pocket of the meat & tobacco companies.
That's what I ran on.
Sarah Taber
That's why I'm in a unique position to tell you how US farmers warm up to the idea of "It's time to grow something else."
They don't.
Sarah Taber
To review: there are only two paths forward for a lot of US farmers.
The "grow something else" option is anathema to a lot of them, that means a whole lot of US farmers are banking on the other path.
Get bailouts forever.
Sarah Taber
When I ran for office in 2024 (NC Commissioner of Agriculture), I ran on a platform of "We need to stop making our state's farms all about cheap bulk crops for China."
I said it a little nicer than that. But there's a reason that was my platform.
Sarah Taber
I saw this coming!
That's not because I'm a genius with a crystal ball either! Everyone who was paying attention saw it coming.
Like China. They spent the last four years investing in soy farming in Brazil, Argentina, etc.
Sarah Taber
Because of this, and Trump's popularity, I knew there were very good odds the farmers in our state would lose their markets.
(NC doesn't export much soy. But we do export lots of pork, chicken, & tobacco to China.)
Sarah Taber
A helpful primer on how major soybean buyers like China are viewing the US's new penchant for trade wars.
Really appreciate the writers' commitment to breaking it down so a 5-year-old can understand it
https://asiatimes.com/2025/09/brazil-will-remain-chinas-preferred-soybean-supplier-not-the-us/
Sarah Taber
Anyway, here's what this all means.
US soybean farmers have two options.
Grow something else, or get welfare checks forever.
There is no third option.
Sarah Taber
So which option are US farmers leaning toward?
Let me put it this way: I haven't run across anyone saying "I'm thinking of growing something else" yet.
They're surely out there, but not amongst the chosen spokespeople of the sector.
Sarah Taber
(Sorry guys, these Farm Facts are gonna be a little different than the usual fun little factoids. Because our farm sector is doing its best to light itself on fire right now.)
Sarah Taber
And it's just not likely to get better anytime soon.
The first time the US started a trade war with China... what can I say. They noticed. They worked with other countries like Brazil, Argentina, and Uruguay to buy their crops & invest in growing more of them.
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