CelloMom On Cars
"#China is at heightened risk of missing its #climate targets and suffering major economic losses unless it takes decisive actions to put a halt to runaway coal power plant expansion and reform outdated power grid management, new research has found."
[Edit to add} But the country's clean energy boom may just help it reach its 2030 goals, see in-depth piece linked in reply.
CelloMom On Cars
"Given the major increase in solar capacity in the first half, as well as expected additions of wind and nuclear throughout the year, China is on track for a fall in emissions in 2025.
This would continue a declining trend that began in early 2024 and leaves open the possibility that China’s emissions could have peaked already, years ahead of its “before 2030” target."
CelloMom On Cars
"The tanks, cannon and missiles that filed past Tiananmen Square may well prove less important in reshaping the world order than the wind turbines, solar panels and electric cars that are churning out of Chinese factories on to fields and roads all over the planet. They are the reason China has already won the battle for the energy of the 21st century."
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2025/sep/07/china-fossil-fuel-us-climate-environment-energy
CelloMom On Cars
"Last year for the first time, the top four wind turbine makers in the world were all Chinese. It is a similar story of majority market share for the manufacture and export of photovoltaic cells and electric vehicles.
When it comes to clean energy, it no longer makes sense to talk about competition, says Li Shuo, the director of China Climate Hub at the Asia Society. “There is only one player.” "
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2025/sep/07/china-fossil-fuel-us-climate-environment-energy
CelloMom On Cars
"Wind and solar now are the most affordable forms of power generation, so they can hold their own in competition if the rules are set right. The big challenge, however, is that they are competing against thermal power plants which still largely operate in a shielded environment.
The key question is the way in which thermal power plants and solar and wind begin to be exposed to competition and short-term trading (spot markets)."
CelloMom On Cars
"[#China, ] the world's largest producer of climate-warming greenhouse gas said it would develop new offshore wind farms and accelerate the construction of "new energy bases" across its vast desert areas, the National Development and Reform Commission, the country's economic planner, said in an official report published on Wednesday.
However, coal will remain a key fuel."
CelloMom On Cars
"For the first time, the growth in China’s clean power generation has caused the nation’s carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions to fall despite rapid power demand growth.
If sustained, the drop in power-sector CO2 as a result of clean-energy growth could presage the sort of structural decline in emissions."
CelloMom On Cars
1200 GW of #CleanEnergy
"China, the world’s biggest emissions polluter, set in 2020 a goal to have at least 1,200 gigawatts (GW) of #solar and #wind capacity by 2030.
#China has already hit that target—just four years after it was set and six years early."
CelloMom On Cars
#China To Allow Market Forces To Dictate Clean Energy Prices
"Beijing will implement "balancing payments," a system comparable to the UK's contracts for difference. This mechanism ensures power producers receive compensation when electricity prices fall below an agreed level and repay excess profits when rates exceed a certain threshold.
The move underscores Beijing’s shift away from subsidy-driven incentives as its #RenewableEnergy sector continues to mature."
CelloMom On Cars
Analysis: Record surge of #CleanEnergy in 2024 halts #China’s CO2 rise
"Whether China’s #emissions remain stable or begin to fall, cementing an emissions peak, remains a race between clean-energy additions and energy demand growth."
https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-record-surge-of-clean-energy-in-2024-halts-chinas-co2-rise/
#PeakEmissions
CelloMom On Cars
"Chinese power generation capacity developers completed some 24 GW of new capacity across more than 150 countries that are part of #China’s Belt and Road Initiative. The number compared with just 10 GW installed in 2023 and 22 GW installed in 2022, Wood Mac said.
A little more than 50% of that total was wind and solar, which must have made climate activists happy—but not too happy because the rest of this new capacity will run on coal, gas, and crude oil."
https://oilprice.com/Alternative-Energy/Renewable-Energy/Chinese-Companies-Set-New-Records-in-Overseas-Renewable-Deployment.html
#BRI
CelloMom On Cars
China's energy storage as of 2023:
- pumped hydro (over half the country’s storage capacity};
- batteries
- emerging technologies: compressed air, flywheel, thermal energy.
"To promote battery storage, China has implemented a number of policies [including a] mandate, which [requires] renewable companies to include a certain amount of energy storage capacity alongside new solar and wind generation projects, with the storage allocation rate ranging between 5% to 20%."
https://www.carbonbrief.org/qa-how-china-became-the-worlds-leading-market-for-energy-storage/
CelloMom On Cars
Reminder of why a storage mandate is becoming necessary:
"Clean energy generated a record-high 44% of China’s electricity in May 2024."
CelloMom On Cars
"#China should set a "strong but achievable" target of slashing #emissions at least 30 percent by 2035 when it submits updated climate commitments in coming months, a report urged Thursday.
China currently aims to peak carbon dioxide emissions before 2030 and reach carbon neutrality by 2060."
CelloMom On Cars
"#China has unveiled a 17-point renewable-energy-substitution plan that spans multiple industries, aiming to accelerate the nation’s #CleanEnergy transition while taking a gradual approach to phasing out fossil fuels in a bid to avoid crippling power disruptions like those seen in recent years."
CelloMom On Cars
"[China] has already surpassed its 2030 target for wind and solar capacity. Over half of all vehicles sold in China are now new energy vehicles—electric or plug-in hybrid electric—an increase spurred by many complementary policies for charging even as subsidies have been phased out."
https://www.brookings.edu/articles/where-are-the-us-and-china-on-addressing-climate-change/
CelloMom On Cars
China has released a 33-point set of guidelines that signal leadership’s first systematic deployment of green targets.
"The main objectives aim to ... basically establish a green, low-carbon and circular development economic system by 2035.
Thermal power remains the backbone of China’s electricity grid. The shares of wind and solar power were 9.1 per cent and 3.3 per cent last year, respectively, 3.5 and 1.4 percentage points higher than in 2020."
CelloMom On Cars
China wants to peak emissions by 2030 and reach net zero by 2060. The biggest stumbling block: the powerful coal industry.
"For years, deep political opposition to reform has stemmed from China’s coal-related state-owned enterprises alongside State Grid and China Southern Power Grid — the two state groups responsible for electricity distribution and transmission to the entire country."
https://www.ft.com/content/4afdd319-230f-4763-8107-d8a43308dcfc
CelloMom On Cars
"Monthly National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) data on generation by technology is now severely limited for wind and solar. For example, it excludes “distributed” rooftop solar and smaller centralised solar plants, capturing only about half of solar generation."
With all renewables ncluded,
"#CleanEnergy generated a record-high 44% of #China’s electricity in May 2024, pushing coal’s share down to a record low of 53%, despite continued growth in demand."
CelloMom On Cars
#China's energy landscape is a complex picture.
"The reduction in CO2 emissions was driven by the surge in clean energy additions, which is driving fossil fuel power into reverse.
However, rapid energy demand growth in sectors such as coal-to-chemicals diluted the impact of changes in the electricity sector.
A slew of recent policy developments hint at a renewed focus in Beijing on the country’s energy and climate targets."
CelloMom On Cars
"The country’s carbon intensity reportedly fell 48% from 2005 to 2020" but that has slowed in recent years.
China needs to either ease up on energy consumption, or accelerate the building of renewable energy.
Meanwhile, "the government’s official policy has shifted to strongly encouraging new coal power. This is causing a rush to secure permits for new projects.
Since the beginning of 2022, a total of 218 gigawatts (GW) of new coal power plants have been permitted"
https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-record-drop-in-chinas-co2-emissions-needed-to-meet-2025-target/
CelloMom On Cars
The good news:
"The clean energy boom can allow most targets to be met."
"The large amount of electricity storage being deployed – especially pumped hydro, but increasingly also grid-connected batteries – reduces the need for thermal power plants."
"China’s clean energy boom has been happening much faster than official targets for wind and solar installations would require, driven by enthusiasm from local governments, state-owned enterprises and investors."
https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-record-drop-in-chinas-co2-emissions-needed-to-meet-2025-target/
CelloMom On Cars
"Some time last year, or perhaps earlier this year, it appears #China’s emissions, in particular, reached a high point. If China has peaked, there is good reason to believe global #emissions peaked, too. It would mean that some time over the past few months, the stubborn nexus between economic growth and greenhouse gas pollution was snapped, and the 250-year surge in emissions ended."
CelloMom On Cars
Deep dive from the horse's mouth, report author Lauri Myllyvirta
"China’s CO2 emissions have now increased by 12% between 2020 and 2023, after a highly energy- and carbon-intensive response to the Covid-19 pandemic.
Government pressure to hit the targets [of] China’s updated international climate pledge under the Paris Agreement, makes it more likely that China’s CO2 emissions will peak before 2025 – far earlier than its target of peaking “before 2030”.
https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-record-drop-in-chinas-co2-emissions-needed-to-meet-2025-target/
CelloMom On Cars
"Coal-fired power and oil consumption increased by 6% and 8%, respectively."
– A lot of that increase was covid rebound.
– Some covered decreased hydropower due to drought.
– And 1% of the increase is from the clean energy manufacturing boom, including PV and batteries.
The latter "will result in a significant reduction in emissions in net terms, once the products are in use. About half of this reduction will be realised outside of China, as the products are exported."
https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-record-drop-in-chinas-co2-emissions-needed-to-meet-2025-target/
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