Conversation

Notices

1. Embed this notice
   Charlie Stross (cstross@wandering.shop)'s status on Monday, 14-Apr-2025 21:25:16 JST Charlie Stross

   Why the USA is still heading for a DEEP recession:

   Trump's 90 day tariff stay causes uncertainty—what happens next? So no sane business is going to make investment plans going forward. Or hire people. They may run existing ops at full tilt to stockpile raw materials or pile up exports ahead of the deadline, but all new plans are on hold for 3 months.

   That ALONE is a recession. Business confidence has evaporated. The US administration is non-serious about business, so business will give up.

   • Minoru Saba repeated this.
   • Embed this notice
     Charlie Stross (cstross@wandering.shop)'s status on Monday, 14-Apr-2025 21:25:15 JST Charlie Stross

     in reply to

     Footnote: the reason Trump is non-serious about business is because Trump doesn't understand how real businesses work. He thinks like a mobster, or a real estate salesman: all customer interactions are a prisoner's dilemma with no iteration (how many times a month do you buy an office block from the same salesman?!?) so *of course* "always defect" is a winning game-theoretical strategy.

     But in the real world, most businesses are built on repeat trade. And Trump has never experienced this.

     Minoru Saba repeated this.
   • Embed this notice
     Koen Hufkens, PhD (koen_hufkens@mastodon.social)'s status on Monday, 14-Apr-2025 21:25:47 JST Koen Hufkens, PhD

     in reply to

     @cstross Or, trust comes on foot and leaves on horseback. (translation from a Dutch proverb).

     The world is in gallop.