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   Jan Wildeboer 😷:krulorange: (jwildeboer@social.wildeboer.net)'s status on Sunday, 13-Apr-2025 12:13:03 JST Jan Wildeboer 😷:krulorange:

   Are we moving towards the end of the US dollar as global reserve currency? I have a gut feeling that indeed we are. That a lot of trust has been destroyed this week and that trust will not simply return. And that causes real anxiety for me. While we theoretically know alternative solutions to a single reserve currency could look like (BANCOR, the Keynes version, not that cryptoshit that tried to profit of the name), the IMF and World Bank have published papers on the question, but no answer 1/5

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     Jan Wildeboer 😷:krulorange: (jwildeboer@social.wildeboer.net)'s status on Sunday, 13-Apr-2025 12:13:02 JST Jan Wildeboer 😷:krulorange:

     in reply to

     The US deficit HAS to grow as long as it is the global reserve currency. It cannot be reduced. This is called the Triffin Dilemma [1] and was ultimately behind the 1929 Great Depression, where the Pound Sterling couldn't keep up with the demands on a global reserve currency. It took 20+ years to find a new balance and while BANCOR offered the sustainable solution, the US dollar simply replaced the Pound Sterling at Bretton-Woods. and now Triffin is back, it seems 2/5

     [1] https://www.imf.org/external/np/exr/center/mm/eng/mm_sc_03.htm

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     Jan Wildeboer 😷:krulorange: (jwildeboer@social.wildeboer.net)'s status on Sunday, 13-Apr-2025 12:13:35 JST Jan Wildeboer 😷:krulorange:

     in reply to

     I guess you all have read the news by now. The tariffs are not the problem. They are a (potent!) distraction. The real problem is that the bonds market shifted. The yield on 5 and 10 year US bonds skyrocketed (comparably, it's a very sensitive market), indicating a loss of trust in the US economy and leadership. THAT caused Trump to blink. Because that change means that borrowing money will become more expensive in the US economy. With unclear consequences, globally. Triffin. Again. 4/5

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     Jan Wildeboer 😷:krulorange: (jwildeboer@social.wildeboer.net)'s status on Sunday, 13-Apr-2025 12:13:36 JST Jan Wildeboer 😷:krulorange:

     in reply to

     The dilemma was manageable as long as the US was seen by market participants as the global leader. And they were for many years. But that has changed, slowly but steadily over the past 20 years. Markets have shifted and China took over the role of the global producer. But without "owning" the global reserve currency. Triffin. So what now? There were a lot of discussions since many years, but Trump changed the picture in a few days and chaos is about to emerge, IMHO. 3/5

     Minoru Saba repeated this.