CelloMom On Cars
Climate Scorpion – the sting is in the tail
"[The Institute and Faculty of Actuaries' third report] calls for a realistic #risk assessment of #ClimateChange as a matter of urgency, taking into account the full range of outcomes, including tipping points, realistic worst-case scenarios, and the risk of ruin.
It introduces the concept of Planetary Solvency to support long-term policy decisions."
CelloMom On Cars
"The team predicted a 50% loss in GDP between 2070 and 2090 without immediate policy action in their recently published Planetary Solvency report.
Now the team have launched a new #ClimateRisk tool that addresses the discrepancy between climate projections and policy outcomes by providing a comprehensive overview of current and projected risks (up to 2050) across four key domains: climate, nature, society, and the economy."
CelloMom On Cars
Global warming of more than 3°C this century may wipe 40% off the world’s economy, new analysis reveals
"Under our new research, the optimal amount of global warming, balancing short-term costs with long-term benefits, is 1.7°C – a figure broadly consistent with the Paris Agreement’s most ambitious target."
IOW:
#ClimateChange is bad for #GDP
CelloMom On Cars
Actuaries, the people whose job is risk assessment, say
– The stability of the Earth system is threatened
– Unmitigated climate change and nature-driven
risks have been hugely underestimated
The severity and frequency of extreme events are unprecedented and beyond model projections.
Translation: We're in an early phase of FAFO but when we get to the. "finding out" phase it will not be pretty.
CelloMom On Cars
"The world’s #FinancialStability watchdog has warned that disasters caused by #ClimateChange are increasingly likely to trigger broader panic in financial markets.
“There could also be an abrupt, broad-based repricing of climate-physical risk, as the expectation of larger future losses are incorporated into current prices and impact sectors and jurisdictions not currently directly affected by disasters.” "
https://www.ft.com/content/c907d5f7-1a85-4527-8970-d0e157138f7e
CelloMom On Cars
The economist Steve Keen says that if the Nobel Prize winning work of #Nordhaus on the economics of climate change had been reviewed by climate scientists, it would not have passed the review process and it would never have been published.
The assumptions are wrong: they don't include real world results from climate science. Nordhaus' model vastly underestimate the damage that #ClimateChange wreaks on the #economy.
https://www.patreon.com/posts/great-new-video-120404361?post_id=120404361
CelloMom On Cars
And yet, despite his work lacking grounding in climate reality, Nordhaus won a Nobel Prize, economists jumped on his bandwagon, "expert" advisors reading their papers get it wrong too, and policy makers relying on them don't feel the urge to do something about climate change.
https://www.patreon.com/posts/great-new-video-120404361?post_id=120404361
CelloMom On Cars
Global economy could face 50% loss in #GDP between 2070 and 2090 from #climate shocks, say actuaries
“Current approaches are failing to properly assess escalating planetary risks or help control them. Planetary solvency applies the established approaches of risk professionals to our life-support system and finds it in jeopardy. It offers a clear way of seeing global risks and prioritising action to limit them.”
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