Conversation

Notices

1. Embed this notice
   Evan Prodromou (evan@cosocial.ca)'s status on Saturday, 18-Jan-2025 03:11:22 JST Evan Prodromou

   I need a little help understanding the importance of the Kahanist parties in the Israeli cabinet decision on the ceasefire.

   • Embed this notice
     Evan Prodromou (evan@cosocial.ca)'s status on Saturday, 18-Jan-2025 03:11:45 JST Evan Prodromou

     in reply to

     My reading so far is that the opposition parties will support the government as long as it's executing the hostage deal.

     "Netanyahu’s coalition will maintain a Knesset majority even without Ben Gvir’s party, though if fellow far-right minister Bezalel Smotrich’s Religious Zionism also follows through on threats to depart, it would fall to a minority. Opposition parties have promised to support the coalition so long as it is advancing the deal."

     https://www.timesofisrael.com/ben-gvir-says-party-to-quit-government-if-cabinet-approves-hostage-ceasefire-deal/

   • Embed this notice
     Evan Prodromou (evan@cosocial.ca)'s status on Saturday, 18-Jan-2025 03:12:46 JST Evan Prodromou

     in reply to

     The Times says Netanyahu is trying to bring the Kahanists in because he wants broad support for the deal. "The government will have a majority to approve the ceasefire deal even if Smotrich and Ben Gvir do not support it in the cabinet, but Netanyahu is seeking the broadest possible support for the agreement, and fears both parties departing the coalition will lead to its collapse in the near future."

   • Embed this notice
     Evan Prodromou (evan@cosocial.ca)'s status on Saturday, 18-Jan-2025 03:13:57 JST Evan Prodromou

     in reply to

     I think the other big threat is that the opposition will probably *only* support the prime minister while the hostages are being freed. Once the process is complete, they will almost definitely end the government in favour of new elections, right? So, having the Kahanists on side keeps that from happening.

   • Embed this notice
     Evan Prodromou (evan@cosocial.ca)'s status on Saturday, 18-Jan-2025 03:16:13 JST Evan Prodromou

     in reply to

     I guess my thought is, isn't it possible to negotiate a longer-term agreement with one of the opposition parties? Since they want to have the deal go through? Rather than continuing to deal with a faction that is not only expensive to cater to, in terms of lives and material, but is also on a hair-trigger for a single issue. The opposition seems like a more practical set of folks to work with.

   • Embed this notice
     Evan Prodromou (evan@cosocial.ca)'s status on Saturday, 18-Jan-2025 03:17:41 JST Evan Prodromou

     in reply to

     I guess there's also defections from within Likud to contend with. As long as the openly Kahanist parties are in his cabinet, it's harder to flank him from the far right. But if he makes a deal with the not-so-far right opposition parties, his support erodes within his own party. idk.

   • Embed this notice
     Evan Prodromou (evan@cosocial.ca)'s status on Saturday, 18-Jan-2025 03:18:29 JST Evan Prodromou

     in reply to

     • El Santo Negro :gitea:

     @elsantonegro And, again, the government can continue without Smotrich. Netanyahu doesn't need him. He can continue with Phase 2 and beyond.

   • Embed this notice
     El Santo Negro :gitea: (elsantonegro@masto.ai)'s status on Saturday, 18-Jan-2025 03:18:30 JST El Santo Negro :gitea:

     in reply to

     @evan The more likely scenario is that Israel resumes attacking Gaza after phase one is complete. This is the condition Smotrich has made for remaining in the government.

   • Embed this notice
     Evan Prodromou (evan@cosocial.ca)'s status on Saturday, 18-Jan-2025 03:21:20 JST Evan Prodromou

     in reply to

     And maybe having a long-term ceasefire just isn't interesting to Netanyahu. He wants to be able to continue the destruction after some sufficient number of hostages are returned. Maybe he's willing to gamble that a few months after the inauguration, Trump will be paying less attention. Or he can blame the resumption of fighting on some Hamas activity.

   • Embed this notice
     Evan Prodromou (evan@cosocial.ca)'s status on Saturday, 18-Jan-2025 03:22:41 JST Evan Prodromou

     in reply to

     I think having the Kahanists walk out of government is great, though. Fuck them.

     https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kahanism

   • Embed this notice
     Evan Prodromou (evan@cosocial.ca)'s status on Saturday, 18-Jan-2025 11:23:20 JST Evan Prodromou

     in reply to

     • El Santo Negro :gitea:

     @elsantonegro well, they voted against the deal but didn't leave the coalition. "Religious Zionism will apparently remain in the government despite opposing the agreement after Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu reportedly reached understandings with Smotrich to keep his faction in the fold."

     https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog-janaury-18-2024/#liveblog-entry-3462040

   • Embed this notice
     El Santo Negro :gitea: (elsantonegro@masto.ai)'s status on Saturday, 18-Jan-2025 11:23:21 JST El Santo Negro :gitea:

     in reply to

     @evan That's where it gets bad for him. What about other things like the judicial reform and Haredi conscription? Outside of the deal, the opposition will not support him. He needs Smotrich. He's rather bomb Gaza than release more hostages and call early elections.

   • Embed this notice
     El Santo Negro :gitea: (elsantonegro@masto.ai)'s status on Saturday, 18-Jan-2025 13:26:33 JST El Santo Negro :gitea:

     in reply to

     @evan Phase 1 is no issue. This is because of pressure for a deal from Trump. Phase 2 is the tricky part. Smotrich has said that if military force did not resume immediately after Phase 1, he would leave the government. There seems to be a growing consensus that this is what we should expect.

     https://mondoweiss.net/2025/01/as-ceasefire-inches-closer-israeli-ministers-are-already-making-plans-to-break-it/

   • Embed this notice
     Evan Prodromou (evan@cosocial.ca)'s status on Saturday, 18-Jan-2025 13:26:33 JST Evan Prodromou

     in reply to

     • El Santo Negro :gitea:

     @elsantonegro yeah, I guess the question is whether that happens. The hostage deal is popular in Israel, including the follow-on stages. Going in to resume military activity when Israelis are still being held will be a tough sell.