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   Baldur Bjarnason (baldur@toot.cafe)'s status on Monday, 13-Jan-2025 18:52:49 JST Baldur Bjarnason

   One point I made in my book on why generative models are bad for business was that it’s impossible to make safe decisions in a bubble market. Even if the underlying tech has merit, bubble risk—every major company becomes irrational—means accessing that “merit” is effectively impossible

   • Rich Felker repeated this.
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     Baldur Bjarnason (baldur@toot.cafe)'s status on Monday, 13-Jan-2025 18:52:49 JST Baldur Bjarnason

     in reply to

     The only rational thing to do for a manager in a massive bubble like this is to hold back because there is generally never a first mover advantage in tech. Those who wade in during the bubble almost always lose to those who enter the market after they’ve figure out what actually works for the tech

     Anybody arguing that being a first mover in “AI” matters because of something unique to “AI” is literally pulling out the “this time it’s different” card that bubble boosters pullout in every bubble.

   • Embed this notice
     Rich Felker (dalias@hachyderm.io)'s status on Monday, 13-Jan-2025 18:53:40 JST Rich Felker

     in reply to

     @baldur TL;DR FOMO is dumb af.