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   goatsarah (goatsarah@thegoatery.dyndns.org)'s status on Tuesday, 07-Jan-2025 04:22:14 JST goatsarah

   in reply to

   • Colin the Mathmo
   @ColinTheMathmo I think you stick. The odds depend on Monty knowing that he isn’t going to show you the car. Regardless of what you want, the odds stay: switch - 2/3 chance of getting the car. Stay - 2/3 chance of getting the goat.
   • Embed this notice
     Colin the Mathmo (colinthemathmo@mathstodon.xyz)'s status on Tuesday, 07-Jan-2025 04:22:15 JST Colin the Mathmo

     OK, here's a nice variant:

     "You are playing the Monty Hall problem. However, you secretly know one of the goats is the former pet of an eccentric billionaire who lost it and is willing to pay an enormous amount for its return, way more than the car is worth. You really want that goat.

     "The host is unaware of this. After you pick your door, as is traditional, the host opens one door, which he knows doesn't have the car. He reveals a goat, which you can tell is the ordinary goat and not the secretly valuable one. The host offers to let you switch doors.

     "Should you?"

     -- https://mathstodon.xyz/@shachaf@y.la/113777521149001723