Futurist Jim CarrollDaily Inspiration: "Sometimes you need not be right you just need to be bold!" - Futurist Jim Carroll
Welcome to 2025!
Back in 2014, I wrote a series of predictions about 2025 - in a document titled, of all things, '25 Trends for 2025'. (Intuitive!) At the time I wrote it, most of the news media were busy, as they are every year, contacting futurists, trend forecasters, and guys like me to bang together their year-end articles about "what comes next? It's at https://2025.jimcarroll.com
When I put together this particular trends document in 2014, it was a rather hurried affair and reflected much of what I was talking about at various events throughout the year earlier. As a result, it wasn't something very comprehensive - it was just a grab bag of stuff. And my goal wasn't just to predict the future - it was to demonstrate how we should think about it. It goes right to the heart of the observation by Bill Gates: "People tend to overestimate what will happen in two years and underestimate what will happen in ten."
I thought it might be fun to go back, take a look at each prediction, and then see how I did. I enlisted Claude.AI to help me in this process and asked it to give me a grade for each prediction.
Read the post for the analysis of each of the 25 trends.
Out of 24 verifiable predictions:
Correct: 4 (16.7%)
Somewhat Correct: 10 (41.7%)
Didn't Happen: 8 (33.3%)
Ridiculous: 1 (4.2%)
Unknown: 1 (4.2%)
"Carroll's predictions were most accurate in areas of technological advancement, particularly in healthcare, agriculture, and digital transformation.
So what's the point of all this?
The real value in futurism isn't about getting predictions exactly right - it's about developing frameworks for thinking about what's next. When I look at those 2014 predictions now, I see the methodology that still guides my work today:
The key isn't to predict the future perfectly - sometimes, it's just about being bold enough to try to predict it!
**#Predictions** **#Future** **#Innovation** **#Foresight** **#Analysis** **#Trends** **#Vision** **#Growth** **#Technology** **#Progress**
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