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   infinite love ⴳ (trwnh@mastodon.social)'s status on Monday, 25-Nov-2024 14:35:20 JST infinite love ⴳ

   got bored and decided to look into a claim that "2024 was decided by people who didn't vote"

   https://obvious-humor.com/post/768061906992939009

   tldr: it was decided by people who *did* vote. for trump.

   - "lower turnout" was in states like california and new york -- blue states that stayed blue
   - "higher turnout" was in "battleground states" which trump won *because* of higher turnout.
   - out of gained voted for trump, 60% from higher turnout, 40% from flipped D-to-R vote

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     infinite love ⴳ (trwnh@mastodon.social)'s status on Monday, 25-Nov-2024 14:35:28 JST infinite love ⴳ

     in reply to

     it's always boring when the conclusion is mostly a common-sense thing, but that usually just means that the analysis is at least consistent with reality in some form

     like "you win elections by getting people to vote for you" -- trump 2024's GOTV (get out the vote) effort was significant

     or "alternative votes continue to be utterly insignificant" -- far, *far* more democrats voted for trump than all people voted for all alternatives combined

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     infinite love ⴳ (trwnh@mastodon.social)'s status on Tuesday, 26-Nov-2024 08:23:12 JST infinite love ⴳ

     in reply to

     other "fun" takeaways using michigan as an example:

     - approximately 0% of people who voted biden 2020 chose to stay home for 2024 -- the "democrat base" was consistent 2020-2024

     - of the higher turnout, 80% went trump but 20% went for alternatives -- likely some of that 20% was the "protest vote"

     - the total active registered voter count was pretty much the same -- higher turnout came from existing voters not newly-registered ones

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