Conversation

Are we already breaching the Paris Agreement this year?

No, but... While it is almost certain that 2024 will be more than 1.5°C above the pre-industrial level, the limit set by the PA applies to a long-term average of at least 20 years.

But, since COP28 in Nov 23, the estimated date has moved 17 months closer, from Nov 31 to Jun 30.

You can explore how the estimation of the time to 1.5°C has changed with our new improved C3S global temperature trend monitor

https://apps.climate.copernicus.eu/global-temperature-trend-monitor/