In 2020, Biden had a small but significant uptick in white suburban voters, and this was taken as validation of the conservative Democratic philosophy underpinning Biden's worldview and the Clinton 2016 campaign, and it became the central thesis of the Harris 2024 campaign. The idea being that Trump was so abhorrent they could win by turning "moderate" Republican voters.
That's kind of horrifying the more you know about Biden's history in the Senate. This is a guy who loved sucking up to Republicans on segregation and abortion.
And he still tried to keep the Obama coalition going and brought more "let me punch this motherfucker in the face" energy to the election.
Biden was by and large a cipher candidate. Despite being Obama's VP, most people didn't feel anything particular about him. They didn't love or hate him. Which made it easier for public opinion to sour on him later.
Virtually anyone could have beaten Trump because they hated him and because of COVID. Biden just happened to have leadership approval as an old white guy with conservative tendencies.
But 81 million people didn't turn out because they liked him personally.
Obviously, Harris faced more of an uphill battle as a Black woman.
The polling boost Harris received after Biden stepped aside had less to do with Biden -- although everyone was relieved after his debate performance and years of dogshit polls -- than with the idea there would be a major course change.
And there was, but it was in the wrong direction as far as the Obama and Biden 2020 coalition was concerned, and the Harris campaign did nothing but double down on it.
To put it bluntly, the idea was Democrats could finally run as the "good" conservatives they always wanted to be and the left-leaning, working class, and marginalized members of their coalition would have no choice but to support them against someone like Trump.
Chuck Schumer put it thusly: "For every blue-collar Democrat we lose in western Pennsylvania, we will pick up two moderate Republicans in the suburbs in Philadelphia, and you can repeat that in Ohio and Illinois and Wisconsin."
Really, nobody except rich white people want to hear that you'll do a bipartisanship and put a Republican on your cabinet. Rich white people love that shit because like the rich white Democratic leadership, they want to believe there is no fundamental, moral difference between the parties that requires them to fight each other. They're all friends! All part of the ruling class.
Which is exactly what most Americans hate about our government.
Trump didn't significantly grow his coalition and he didn't have to since Harris lost a good chunk of Obama and Biden voters.
Democrats are going to blame non-voters for Trump winning. Fine.
But it's pretty clear Harris and Democrats in general bled support from Black voters, Latinos, Arabs, Muslims, and others because of their pursuit of white conservatives and an economy most people think sucks.
The "radicals" of the party like Ilhan Omar and Rashida Tlaib did just fine in comparison.
Harris and Democrats bet everything on Trump and the Dobbs decision pushing white suburbanites, especially women, into their camp.
But it turns out Biden's uptick with that group was mostly a fluke owing to COVID and the circumstances of that election. White women didn't turn out in droves for Harris -- and neither did the old Democratic coalition.
It turns out a lot of Democratic voters kinda hate George Bush, Dick Cheney, and Liz Cheney, actually? They're leery of cops. There was that whole BLM thing? They're alarmed by the idea of having the most deadly military on Earth. What is it for? Oh, and Israel? We're going to back Israel to the hilt even as it exterminates children. Nobody signed up for that. Who thought that was a good idea?
A bunch of white people in expensive suits, probably. The same ones celebrating "the Biden Boom."