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   Hrefna (DHC) (hrefna@hachyderm.io)'s status on Sunday, 03-Nov-2024 14:37:48 JST Hrefna (DHC)

   Poll herding is such a PITA from a modeling perspective.

   It means that if you are trying to figure out what will happen you are looking for signals that may simply not be there.

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     Hrefna (DHC) (hrefna@hachyderm.io)'s status on Sunday, 03-Nov-2024 14:50:35 JST Hrefna (DHC)

     in reply to

     One way to think of this is as a file drawer problem.

     Essentially as we get closer to the election your poll-based metrics become _less_ reliable, not more, because you don't know what is not being published, and you can't know if most pollsters change their methodologies or weighting slightly.

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     Matt Boehm (bigolewannabe@hachyderm.io)'s status on Sunday, 03-Nov-2024 20:14:32 JST Matt Boehm

     in reply to

     @hrefna
     The whole point of poll aggregation assumes the "wisdom of crowds" thing where all the estimates are independent. Otherwise it's essentially just a poll of what the pollsters think the overall consensus is, right?