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   Glyph (glyph@mastodon.social)'s status on Sunday, 03-Nov-2024 10:22:20 JST Glyph

   I just can’t reconcile the polls with any understanding I have of reality. I think she’s going to win, and I think it will be close but I just can’t believe it will be the nail-biter we are seeing in the data. It’s not that I think he is so awful that the virtuous American populace will reject him, obviously we are well past that, obviously tens of millions of irredeemable racists will vote for him, obviously it *will* be close

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     Glyph (glyph@mastodon.social)'s status on Sunday, 03-Nov-2024 10:22:18 JST Glyph

     in reply to

     • kati

     @kati my cousin who is a bit of a stats nerd and a data scientist in training just texted me about this; I don’t think I am going to post much about this until I have had a chance to internalize it and calm down, but my understanding is that it is even better news than it sounds like. Basically this *is* evidence for my hypothesis above, and probably pretty good evidence at that. People are waking up.

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     baconandcoconut (baconandcoconut@freeradical.zone)'s status on Sunday, 03-Nov-2024 10:22:18 JST baconandcoconut

     in reply to

     • kati

     @glyph @kati It's an extremely weird race from a polling standpoint. We've never had a woman and non-white person running against a fascist with a ton of momentum but also severely declining mental health running in a year with abortion so clearly on the line. Different people will vote, folks will break with their habits and different people will stay home or vote third party.

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     kati (kati@fosstodon.org)'s status on Sunday, 03-Nov-2024 10:22:19 JST kati

     in reply to

     @glyph Des Moines Register reporting Kamala believed to have leapfrogged Trump. Driven by women. https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2024/11/02/iowa-poll-kamala-harris-leads-donald-trump-2024-presidential-race/75354033007/

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     kati (kati@fosstodon.org)'s status on Sunday, 03-Nov-2024 10:22:20 JST kati

     in reply to

     @glyph I don't know if you saw what happened a couple of years ago in my very conservative home-state Kansas with abortion referendum. No one seemed sure how it would go, but it was voted down by a landslide. Expecting a nail-biter, but hoping women will similarly help make the difference to elect Kamala.