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   Evan Prodromou (evan@cosocial.ca)'s status on Sunday, 03-Nov-2024 00:22:25 JST Evan Prodromou

   Hey, all. So, I am somewhat agree.

   I realize if you are not directly affected by the War in Gaza, this may seem extremely high risk and a little precious.

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     Evan Prodromou (evan@cosocial.ca)'s status on Sunday, 03-Nov-2024 00:37:53 JST Evan Prodromou

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     But perhaps put yourself in the shoes of an Arab American who has asked for common-sense conditions to reduce some portion of the misery in Gaza and Lebanon and have been rebuffed time and again by a candidate who is ashamed of being supported by you.

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     Evan Prodromou (evan@cosocial.ca)'s status on Sunday, 03-Nov-2024 00:39:21 JST Evan Prodromou

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     And then being threatened that if you don't vote for the candidate anyway, more people will die, and you yourself will be in danger domestically.

     Not, let's all fight this together, but, unless you comply, you are fucked, and we will not help you.

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     Evan Prodromou (evan@cosocial.ca)'s status on Sunday, 03-Nov-2024 00:41:29 JST Evan Prodromou

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     And finally, that you have some tiny sliver of power to possibly swing the election, but everyone is betting that you will not use it. That you must remain disempowered for everyone else's benefit.

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     Evan Prodromou (evan@cosocial.ca)'s status on Sunday, 03-Nov-2024 00:42:17 JST Evan Prodromou

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     Maybe you can imagine that this is not actually as easy a choice as everyone seems to suggest.

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     Evan Prodromou (evan@cosocial.ca)'s status on Sunday, 03-Nov-2024 00:44:25 JST Evan Prodromou

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     I think, anyway, that dividing up between battleground and safe states gives a permission structure for people in those battleground states to vote strategically for Harris. Knowing that others are going to send the signal in places where it is low risk makes it possible to vote for someone who you really don't like, in order to keep out someone you really, REALLY don't like.

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     Evan Prodromou (evan@cosocial.ca)'s status on Sunday, 03-Nov-2024 00:46:36 JST Evan Prodromou

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     There are two big problems with this strategy, however.

     First, it's hard to know which states are safe. If enough people in near-swing states vote third party, that "safe" state becomes unsafe.

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     Evan Prodromou (evan@cosocial.ca)'s status on Sunday, 03-Nov-2024 00:49:51 JST Evan Prodromou

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     Second, which has been pointed out in the comments, it's actually hard to send a message in the voting booth.

     I think if you're trying to send a message that an anti-war vote exists, voting for Trump or abstaining from voting does not show that signal. It gets lost in the noise of MAGA or apathy.

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     Evan Prodromou (evan@cosocial.ca)'s status on Sunday, 03-Nov-2024 00:53:05 JST Evan Prodromou

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     So it has to be for one of the anti-war third party candidates, like Jill Stein, Cornell West, or Claudia de la Cruz.

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     Evan Prodromou (evan@cosocial.ca)'s status on Sunday, 03-Nov-2024 00:55:41 JST Evan Prodromou

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     I think if some single-digit percentage of voters go for these candidates in California (say), it will give a little pause in post election analysis. Ah, the anti-war protest vote, they will say. There it is, 6% in California. And then they'll move on.

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     Evan Prodromou (evan@cosocial.ca)'s status on Sunday, 03-Nov-2024 00:59:05 JST Evan Prodromou

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     But maybe the signal isn't for the Democratic Party, or for analysts at MSNBC, or for strategists already thinking about the 2026 mid-terms.

     Maybe it's a signal for other average Americans, and for people overseas, maybe in Europe and New Zealand, maybe in Namibia and South Africa, maybe in Gaza and Egypt and Lebanon and Israel.

     That anti-war Americans exist, that we are still fighting, and that we haven't given up. And if you are against the war, we stand with you.

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     Evan Prodromou (evan@cosocial.ca)'s status on Sunday, 03-Nov-2024 01:06:28 JST Evan Prodromou

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     • Jonathan Glick

     @Jonathanglick I think you're absolutely correct. Right now, we have the Democratic Party that refused to put a Palestinian American on the stage at the convention. They gambled that they can lose Arab Americans in Michigan and elsewhere and still win.

     That said, it would have been hard in 2004 to predict that a vocal anti-Iraq-war candidate would win the presidency in 2008. Things change fast in American politics.

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     Jonathan Glick (jonathanglick@mstdn.social)'s status on Sunday, 03-Nov-2024 01:06:29 JST Jonathan Glick

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     @evan In my opinion, that will only encourage more Putin/GOP-backed fake protest candidates in future cycles. The only path to a two-state solution is a Democratic Party that is unafraid of attacks from evangelical and Likud-supporting constituencies. (A very difficult task considering the necessary breadth of the Democratic coalition)

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     Evan Prodromou (evan@cosocial.ca)'s status on Sunday, 03-Nov-2024 01:26:56 JST Evan Prodromou

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     • Fifi Lamoura

     @fifilamoura welp, 40% of Arab Americans in Michigan say they're going to vote for Stein. It might be because they want to vote for a Putin apologist, but I think it's because of her position on the war.

     https://www.reuters.com/world/us/muslim-americans-moving-jill-stein-potential-blow-kamala-harris-2024-09-19/

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     Fifi Lamoura (fifilamoura@eldritch.cafe)'s status on Sunday, 03-Nov-2024 01:26:57 JST Fifi Lamoura

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     @evan um, I don't think that's the message voting for Jill Stein sends at all. Nobody really sees her as antiwar, they see her as a Putin apologist.

     bhaugen repeated this.
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     M. Grégoire (mpjgregoire@cosocial.ca)'s status on Sunday, 03-Nov-2024 01:41:56 JST M. Grégoire

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     @evan In US presidential elections, most states send strong majorities for one or the other of the two main parties. In such states voters who are dissatisfied with the Ds or the Rs should vote not against a candidate they dislike, but in favour of the candidate they most support, secure in the knowledge that their votes are highly unlikely to tip the race in an undesired direction.

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     Evan Prodromou (evan@cosocial.ca)'s status on Sunday, 03-Nov-2024 02:01:04 JST Evan Prodromou

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     I should also acknowledge here that this kind of difficult electoral math isn't exclusive to Arab Americans.

     Supporters of Black Lives Matter have to consider whether Democrats are ever going to get serious about changing policing policies.

     Supporters of the rights of immigrants have to wonder whether a Harris administration would pass punitive border policies like the bipartisan bill of 2024.

     There are human lives at stake across the country.

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     Evan Prodromou (evan@cosocial.ca)'s status on Sunday, 03-Nov-2024 10:55:12 JST Evan Prodromou

     in reply to

     Thanks everyone for your thoughts and feedback. I think it's a hard election for a lot of people.