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   • Kamala Harris News Group 2.0

   If you are interested in getting under the hood of this election, today is the day to listen to Simon Rosenberg's video presentation with Tom Bonier on Hopium Chronicles:

   https://www.hopiumchronicles.com/p/i-would-much-rather-be-us-than-them-aec

   Simon and Tom go into some detail on how to interpret the early voting data, and spoiler alert, contrary to what the media may be saying, there is no indication Republicans are winning the early vote, and every indication we are on track to win this election.

   Details follow...

   1/n

   @KamalaHarrisWin

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     • Kamala Harris News Group 2.0

     9. Why Manipulate the Polls (1): I may be trying to end American democracy for all time, blow up the global economy and end the Western alliance... but I'm leading in the polls and I'm strong, and she's losing in the polls and she's weak. I may be a misogynist and a bigot and a racist and a xenophobe but I'm leading in the polls... So it's been a tactic to obscure his ugliness and because if he's losing then the ugliness becomes more pronounced the emperor has no clothes

     10/n

     @KamalaHarrisWin

     Mr. Bill repeated this.
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     • Kamala Harris News Group 2.0

     10. Why Manipulate The Polls (2): This effort to soften the ground on that he's winning when he's not winning is the first stage of the process of them to contest the election next week, which they're going to do. And they're going to do it for the same reason they've run the red wave play. The red wave play worked in 2022, so they've run it again. The stealing the election thing almost worked in 2021, so they're going to try it again.

     11/n

     @KamalaHarrisWin

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     5. Republicans Not Generating New Voters: : There is no metric by which Republicans are winning the early vote... 47% of them were election day voters four years ago. 46% of them were male voters four years ago... that tells you is that over 93% of the people who voted, the Republicans who have voted already in Pennsylvania, were people who voted in 2020.

     6/n

     @KamalaHarrisWin

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     6. No Sign New Young Men Voters: It's part of this bro strategy going on Joe Rogan, going on all these other podcasts. And it's a risky strategy from a tactical perspective because we know that these young men are the lowest turnout propensity group out there... If that was working, we would expect to see a Republican advantage among new registrants... but it is not showing up in this data. It's not there

     7/n

     @KamalaHarrisWin

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     • Kamala Harris News Group 2.0

     7. Republicans Voting For Harris: There is significant evidence now... that some of that Republican surge vote that happened in that first weekend was Republicans voting for Kamala Harris. And we know this from polling.

     8/n

     @KamalaHarrisWin

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     8. Red Wave Polls: They dumped all these red wave polls... not because they're winning, but because they're losing... there have been about, there have been now 32 organizations... The two states they've really focused on have been Pennsylvania and North Carolina... and now two weeks ago, they really started attacking the national polling average... They pushed the national polling average down in 538 from 2.6 to 1.8. That tipped all the forecasters over.

     9/n

     @KamalaHarrisWin

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     • Kamala Harris News Group 2.0

     2. Trump Desperation: Tomorrow Trump is going to Virginia and New Mexico. I mean, it's a sign of incredible desperation as if they're gonna try to put more states in play.... And I think the other reason, by the way, they're sending him, is because when they send him to battleground states, it actually hurts them.

     3/n

     @KamalaHarrisWin

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     3. Congress: We just had a poll showing John Tester within margin of error in Montana. And we know that Texas and Nebraska, that lightning could strike. Sherrod Brown, everyone has this quiet confidence that he's going to pull it out. There is no polling showing, there's no real polling showing him down. He's been ahead in all those races. So the Senate remains unbelievably competitive. In the House, there's just lots of optimism... people are remarkably confident.
     4/n

     @KamalaHarrisWin

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     4. Grassroots/Superior Organization: Our candidates have had more money. They've had more ability... to reach people on the ground. And so we're building these supercharged campaigns that are allowing us to control the information environment and to push our performance again and again to the upper end of what's possible.

     5/n

     @KamalaHarrisWin

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     1. Polling: We should feel good about where we are... We're ahead of the national polling by two to four points. We are in a stronger position in the battleground.
     We just had very good polling today in Michigan and Wisconsin. We've had good polling this week in Arizona, North Carolina. Pennsylvania looks like it's really going to be a dogfight.

     2/n

     @KamalaHarrisWin