Chuck DarwinThe Senate race in Pennsylvania is in a dead heat.
• A number of polling agencies and political experts have released figures showing that Bob Casey’s race will be one of the closest on the map.
• Washington Post Poll: Bob Casey 48% – David McCormick 48%
• CNN Poll: Bob Casey 46% – David McCormick 46%
• RealClearPolitics: PA Senate race is a tossup.
• Roll Call: Bob Casey is the 3rd most vulnerable Senator running for re-election.
• The numbers tell some clear signs. This is one of the closest Senate races in the country.
McCormick and GOP billionaires are spending $150 million to flip this battleground.
• With less than 5 weeks left until Election Day, this campaign is being outspent by tens of millions and is at risk of being drowned out on the airwaves.
• Keystone Renewal, one of the largest single-candidate super PACs in history, is spending more than $56 million supporting David McCormick. That’s unheard of in Senate races this cycle.
• The Senate Leadership Fund, a Mitch McConnell-linked super PAC, is spending $24 million to defeat Bob Casey.
• We believe David McCormick will continue to self-fund his campaign with millions from his personal fortune, and you can expect more opposition ad spending in the final weeks.
• While Pennsylvanians are being inundated with GOP attack ads, Bob Casey’s campaign might have to go dark if they don’t have the resources to keep up. In a race this close, that could be the difference between winning and losing.
Pennsylvania has historically been the tipping point for U.S. Elections.
• We’ve been on both the winning and losing side of elections, and here’s what we know for sure: As PA goes, so goes the nation.
• In 2016, 44,292 votes in PA propelled Donald Trump to his unexpected win.
• In 2020, Joe Biden clinched Pennsylvania’s 20 electoral votes by a narrow 1.17% margin, helping him secure the White House.
• Nate Silver’s model is predicting that whichever presidential candidate wins PA has over a 93% chance of winning.
• When charting a path to a Democratic Senate majority, Pennsylvania is a must-win race.
Bob Casey needs the resources to make his case.
• In order to win, this campaign needs to make the case directly to voters about the threat David McCormick poses to Pennslyvanians' fundamental freedoms — and that takes organizing and advertising.
All GNU social JP content and data are available under the