Evan Prodromou
This is an interesting result. I am qualified yes. I think the candidate reset is an opportunity to renegotiate the terms of engagement between the President and the Prime Minister.
And I think Kamala Harris plans to do that. She skipped Netanyahu's address to Congress today and plans to meet him 1:1 later this week.
https://www.politico.com/news/2024/07/22/harris-plans-meeting-netanyahu-00170493
Evan Prodromou
I think there's also an opportunity to negotiate with the Uncommitted movement in the USA. Finding a way to engage those disaffected voters could be the key to winning some battleground states.
Evan Prodromou
I don't think it's a secret that part of Kamala Harris's strength is her appeal to Black voters -- many of whom were dubious about Biden specifically because of his Gaza policy. Especially in Black churches, there has been increasing call for more active involvement in peacemaking by the US. It seems unlikely that a staunch pro-war stance would shake her support that much, but it also seems a way to activate voters who were considering not voting at all in November.
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4677821-biden-risks-losing-black-voters-over-gaza/
Evan Minto
@evan This is better than Biden, at least on a rhetorical level, but I don't see how it's functionally any different. By including all the qualifiers, it's easy enough to say "well yeah we want the genocide to end, but only when the hostages are home/Hamas is destroyed," which allows Israel to keep going indefinitely.
Evan Prodromou
@VamptVo so, it comes down to why some people withheld their support from Biden.
Especially in a tight election, groups like the Uncommitted movement have a chance to pressure a candidate to shift their position in order to win the group's votes.
It's a dangerous game.
Holding out too long can make it impossible to deliver those votes.
Announcing support too soon without concrete gains can also alienate group members, who might not come to the polls.
Evan Prodromou
@VamptVo if no agreement is reached, and the candidate wins anyway, the group has much less influence in a future administration.
If no agreement is reached, and the candidate loses, the opponent may be very much worse.
Evan Prodromou
@VamptVo and there are plenty of people who vote egotistically instead of strategically. For them, it's about what their vote says about them personally, rather than what its effect is.
Evan Prodromou
@VamptVo anyway, my guess is that there's not much longer here to find an agreement that works for anti-war activists, Arab Americans, and American Jews. There's probably a window here to get concessions and it might be the last shot before election time.
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