Conversation

Trump donor Peter Thiel invests in Polymarket, a political betting site. Polymarket hires Nate Silver.

Wonder why Silver's NYT polls were so generous to Trump at the beginning of the year? Silver later reveals his polls included those not likely to vote. Why would an experienced pollster do that?

Silver FAMOUSLY blew 2016. He says he uses "predictive" modeling now, not simply statistical analysis. He became the boy genius of baseball stats to the boy genius of elections to the boy genius giving financial advice. He admits he has lost millions of dollars in a financial scam, as a gullible mark.

It appears Nate Silver may the ENRON of polling.