Nowhere Girl
People talk about the Democratic presidential nominating process like it's straightforward and fair.
It's not true that the DNC picks the nominee nor that voters have a free choice. Name recognition, money, party support, media, and yes, charisma all factor in.
The establishment white guy usually wins because they have support lined up and are deemed "viable" compared to progressive, non-white, or women candidates. And against someone like Trump, voters are scared of "unviable" candidates.
Nowhere Girl
Exceptions occur if there is no "obvious" establishment candidate or "heir apparent" -- 1992 was a free-for-all, for example, which Clinton handily won as a skilled campaigner -- or if they're seen as inherently weak. Obama won over the party apparatchiks in 2008, for example, who switched from Clinton.
But sitting presidents are rarely primaried even when they're vulnerable, and the party can effectively shut down that process to protect their candidacy. Everybody is scared of 1968.
Nowhere Girl
Primary voters don't reflect the electorate very well either, mainly due to systemic factors. They tend to be older, whiter, and more affluent and therefore more conservative. This is especially true in the traditional early New England primaries, which are extremely white. Caucuses also demand a lot of time and engagement. And depending on where you live, the race may effectively be over already by the time your state's primary election rolls around.
It's Pronounced DEETS
@gwynnion The way the primaries are set up as well. The fact that Democrats are letting Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina choose their nominee helps ensure a more conservative candidate. If all primaries were held on the same day, it would be more reflective of the overall party membership.
Nowhere Girl
Here we are in 2024 and everybody cleared the field for Biden except RFK, Jr., who's just a Republican shit stain hoping to play spoiler.
But some people are apparently having second thoughts.
Whether you think there's a difference between 2020 Biden and 2024 Biden depends, I guess, on whether you think he's declined due to age.
I think he's the same guy he ever was, but he was never even close to being my preferred candidate and he's turned out only slightly better than I expected.
Nowhere Girl
We are undoubtedly stuck with Biden unless he dies suddenly. A late change of heart isn't his style, and he's got an ego to protect.
VP Kamala Harris is the obvious successor but I don't get the impression the leadership likes her very much and she's been mostly sidelined for 4 years.
Unless he dies, too, Trump isn't going away anytime soon either. So aside from COVID, it looks like a rehash of 2020, only Biden's standing is weaker and Trump's negatives apparently aren't as salient to voters.
band
@gwynnion sad about the sidelining of Harris. i think the DNC leadership is misguided and out of touch with reality. (yeah my thinking is fuzzy on this)
Nowhere Girl
Biden had obvious weaknesses. He was not an inspiring speaker, he was cantankerous, he bickered with voters, and his Senate history raised big red flags, which Kamala Harris dared to bring up at the early debates.
But you know, if you're someone like Julián Castro, for example, you don't stand a chance against this guy no matter how great a politician or candidate you might be. Especially when a returning Bernie Sanders is sucking the rest of the air out of the room.
Nowhere Girl
So yeah, I wouldn't exactly call that process fair or equal, although it was fun watching Bloomberg spend a shit load of money only to discover that nobody liked him.
A lot is made of Biden's support from Black voters, which is true, but it's rarely mentioned that Sanders had strong support from younger Black voters and he was typically the second choice of Biden supporters as well, perhaps pragmatically.
There was much less acrimony between those camps than was made out to be.
Nowhere Girl
If you look at 2020, the party and the media both waited to coronate Biden as soon as he declared. He had name recognition and he was Obama's VP and supposed best buddy, which yielded a lot of (I think unearned) trust from voters. Because of that, he could raise lots of money from traditional Democratic donors. There was also a lot of fear that only an old white man could defeat Trump given the white backlash to Obama, which shot down half of the primary field essentially from day one.
simsa03
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