Conversation

Notices

1. Embed this notice
   CJ Bellwether (siege@octodon.social)'s status on Thursday, 20-Jun-2024 16:06:34 JST CJ Bellwether

   So the Telegraphs new MRP poll has the Tories barely holding on as second party on 53 seats, with Lib Dems on 50.

   Come on.

   • Embed this notice
     CJ Bellwether (siege@octodon.social)'s status on Thursday, 20-Jun-2024 16:17:13 JST CJ Bellwether

     in reply to

     so any trans people fearful or disillusioned by the unknowningness of Labour - this is the thing in play for anyone in a Lib/Con seat.

     We can actually wipe out the Tories.

   • Embed this notice
     CJ Bellwether (siege@octodon.social)'s status on Thursday, 20-Jun-2024 16:25:05 JST CJ Bellwether

     in reply to

     • Eliza

     @eliza that one looks like its gonna be deeply complicated/conflicting.

     No way Lib dems will take it, its Labour or Tory (and Reform in third).

     I think honestly the answer is that Trans people will have to vote with their heart there.

   • Embed this notice
     Eliza (eliza@chaosfem.tw)'s status on Thursday, 20-Jun-2024 16:25:07 JST Eliza

     in reply to

     @siege
     And people should vote Lib Dem in Rosie Duffield’s seat?

   • Embed this notice
     CJ Bellwether (siege@octodon.social)'s status on Thursday, 20-Jun-2024 16:35:22 JST CJ Bellwether

     in reply to

     • Eliza

     @eliza i dont think theres a chance that Tories will take it, so probably the best option is people voting yeah lib or green and hoping her vote share compared to other constituencies will signal her lack of appeal as a candidate.

   • Embed this notice
     CJ Bellwether (siege@octodon.social)'s status on Thursday, 20-Jun-2024 21:38:33 JST CJ Bellwether

     in reply to

     also to follow on from this, what i mean by them losing money: Theres two things, if the tories go below a certain number of MPs (even if they remain the opposition party), theres clauses where their funders will pull out.

     But if they lose their position as the opposition (and are replaced by Lib Dems) they lose access to "Short Money" which is given to the opposition to fund policy research and travel expenses. To give example: Labour is entitled to £7.68 million of Short Money in the 2023/24 financial year.

   • Embed this notice
     CJ Bellwether (siege@octodon.social)'s status on Thursday, 20-Jun-2024 21:40:51 JST CJ Bellwether

     in reply to

     • Loukas Christodoulou

     @Loukas well the funny thing is, the MRP poll that shows them close to losing opposition status, shows Reform getting 0 seats.

   • Embed this notice
     Loukas Christodoulou (loukas@mastodon.nu)'s status on Thursday, 20-Jun-2024 21:40:55 JST Loukas Christodoulou

     in reply to

     @siege oof that just made me realise that it gives the Tories a big reason to merge with Reform if that will put them over the LibDems.

   • Embed this notice
     CJ Bellwether (siege@octodon.social)'s status on Thursday, 20-Jun-2024 21:44:19 JST CJ Bellwether

     in reply to

     Theyd also lose their media right to reply to the government. It would instead be Lib Dems the media would have to turn to for a counter.

   • Embed this notice
     doop (doop@octodon.social)'s status on Thursday, 20-Jun-2024 22:01:12 JST doop

     in reply to

     @siege I thought Short Money went to any party with at least two seats, or one seat and >150k votes? So they'd lose money because it's something like £20k per seat plus £40 for every 200 votes, but they wouldn't be cut out altogether.