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   Evan Prodromou (evan@cosocial.ca)'s status on Wednesday, 19-Jun-2024 08:30:54 JST Evan Prodromou

   OK, so, this is interesting.

   I'm qualified yes. Here's my reasoning.

   • Embed this notice
     Evan Prodromou (evan@cosocial.ca)'s status on Wednesday, 19-Jun-2024 08:32:56 JST Evan Prodromou

     in reply to

     It's clear that the Gaza war is hurting Biden.

     https://www.reuters.com/world/us/democratic-divide-gaza-war-campus-protests-hurting-biden-reutersipsos-poll-finds-2024-05-16/

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     Evan Prodromou (evan@cosocial.ca)'s status on Wednesday, 19-Jun-2024 08:34:44 JST Evan Prodromou

     in reply to

     I guess the gamble the campaign has is that they can win anyway. Maybe the people most disaffected are very progressive people in deep blue states, where he can afford to lose some votes. Or maybe there's some other factor that makes is less critical than it seems.

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     Evan Prodromou (evan@cosocial.ca)'s status on Wednesday, 19-Jun-2024 08:36:11 JST Evan Prodromou

     in reply to

     I think one big problem is that those very committed progressives are also the people who donate and volunteer. If they aren't out there getting out the vote, it's even worse. There's a multiplier effect to losing committed supporters.

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     Evan Prodromou (evan@cosocial.ca)'s status on Wednesday, 19-Jun-2024 08:37:13 JST Evan Prodromou

     in reply to

     So, can he squeak through? I'm not sure. I really hope for this and other reasons that the current round of ceasefire talks work.

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     Evan Prodromou (evan@cosocial.ca)'s status on Wednesday, 19-Jun-2024 09:02:47 JST Evan Prodromou

     in reply to

     • Steve Dinn 🇨🇦

     @steve I think you've got the erroneous idea that convincing me that Biden is better than Trump will magically fix those polling numbers, which is not the case.

   • Embed this notice
     Steve Dinn 🇨🇦 (steve@social.dinn.ca)'s status on Wednesday, 19-Jun-2024 09:02:48 JST Steve Dinn 🇨🇦

     in reply to

     @evan Its not like things would get better under Trump.

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     Evan Prodromou (evan@cosocial.ca)'s status on Wednesday, 19-Jun-2024 09:55:14 JST Evan Prodromou

     in reply to

     • Steve Dinn 🇨🇦

     @steve totally fair!

   • Embed this notice
     Steve Dinn 🇨🇦 (steve@social.dinn.ca)'s status on Wednesday, 19-Jun-2024 09:55:15 JST Steve Dinn 🇨🇦

     in reply to

     @evan I get you. I just tried to put myself in the position of an American voter. They really are stuck between a rock and a hard place.

   • Embed this notice
     Phi Φ (sci_phi@mastodon.social)'s status on Wednesday, 19-Jun-2024 09:59:15 JST Phi Φ

     in reply to

     @evan I don’t think “committed supporters”are the same as “committed progressives” on this issue.

     He didn’t create the conflict in the Middle East, definitely unfair to pin solving it as some unique problem he faces.

     The issues around _continued_ weapon sales OR pushing for cease-fire are smaller sub-sets of ME policy that motivate|depress the enthusiasm of different polities.

     None of it has holistic affect despite opinion of vocal members of those voting subsets

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     Evan Prodromou (evan@cosocial.ca)'s status on Wednesday, 19-Jun-2024 09:59:15 JST Evan Prodromou

     in reply to

     • Phi Φ

     @Sci_Phi you might want to read the polls on that point.

     https://www.reuters.com/world/us/democratic-divide-gaza-war-campus-protests-hurting-biden-reutersipsos-poll-finds-2024-05-16/

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     Evan Prodromou (evan@cosocial.ca)'s status on Wednesday, 19-Jun-2024 10:01:23 JST Evan Prodromou

     in reply to

     • Phi Φ

     @Sci_Phi

     "Some 44% of Democratic registered voters responding to the May 7-14 poll said they disapprove of Biden's handling of the crisis. [...]

     "Among the registered Democrats who disapprove of Biden's response to the Gaza conflict, about 77% said they would vote for him in November, compared with about 93% of those who approved of his Gaza response."

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     Evan Prodromou (evan@cosocial.ca)'s status on Thursday, 20-Jun-2024 11:58:07 JST Evan Prodromou

     in reply to

     • Phi Φ

     @Sci_Phi that sounds fair, I guess. I think my concern is that the 2020 election was decided in states where the margin was 10, 20, or 30 thousand votes. In that situation, it feels like every vote counts.

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     Phi Φ (sci_phi@mastodon.social)'s status on Thursday, 20-Jun-2024 11:58:08 JST Phi Φ

     in reply to

     @evan a 23% defect rate amongst the 44% disapprovers - an 11% hit sounds high but I did MR & political polling for my first pro job so I’m a little sus about the hypothetical scenarios being relevant (vs horse race question)