Daniele de Rigo
1/
Asian #heatwaves: factors & #ClimateChange
"#heatwave action plans and strategies are challenged by
rapidly growing cities,
increase in informal settlements and exposed populations,
reduction in green spaces
and rise in energy demands.
While many cities have been implementing solutions like cool roofs, nature based infrastructure design [...], there is limited focus on retrofitting and upgrading of existing buildings and settlements [...] to make them more liveable"
Daniele de Rigo
[1] World Weather Attribution, 2024. Climate change made the deadly heatwaves that hit millions of highly vulnerable people across Asia more frequent and extreme. In: World Weather Attribution - Analyses. p. 2769+.
https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/?p=2769
(archived: https://purl.org/INRMM-MiD/z-HGYY5X7P )
[2] Coleman, J., 2024. Chance of heatwaves in India rising with climate change. Nature. https://doi.org/10.1038/d41586-024-01577-5
WWA methodological papers:
https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/methodological-papers/
On #uncertainty: https://hostux.social/@dderigo/110436707974421777
Daniele de Rigo
3/
Again the WWA analysis [1]:
"Extreme heat in #SouthAsia during the pre-monsoon season is becoming more frequent. [...]
Scientists from Lebanon, Sweden, Malaysia, the Netherlands, [USA] and [UK] collaborated to assess to what extent human-induced climate change altered the likelihood and intensity of the extreme heat in three Asian regions [...]
In the current climate, warmed by 1.2°C since pre-industrial times due to human activities, this kind of extreme heat event is not very rare"
Daniele de Rigo
2/
Jude Coleman comment in Nature: https://doi.org/10.1038/d41586-024-01577-5 :
"Although heat in spring is normal in #India, says Krishna AchutaRao, a climate scientist at the Indian Institute of Technology Delhi, the duration and expanse of the #heatwaves in 2022, 2023 and 2024 are uncommon [...]
An analysis [1] by the World Weather Attribution (WWA) initiative published this month found that climate change made the current extreme temperatures in India 45 times more likely than without #ClimateChange" [2]
Daniele de Rigo
10/
#References
[5] Vanos, J., Guzman-Echavarria, G., Baldwin, J.W., Bongers, C., Ebi, K.L., Jay, O., 2023. A physiological approach for assessing human survivability and liveability to heat in a changing climate. Nature Communications 14 (1), 7653+. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-43121-5
Daniele de Rigo
[3] Vecellio, D.J., Kong, Q., et al., 2023. Greatly enhanced risk to humans as a consequence of empirically determined lower moist heat stress tolerance. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 120 (42), e2305427120+. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2305427120
[4] Powis, C.M., Byrne, et al., 2023. Observational and model evidence together support wide-spread exposure to noncompensable heat under continued global warming. Science Advances 9 (36), eadg9297+. https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.adg9297
Daniele de Rigo
8/
In [5], it is noted how most studies "projecting human survivability limits to extreme heat with #ClimateChange use a 35 °C wet-bulb #temperature (Tw) threshold without integrating variations in human #physiology".
The study "applies physiological and biophysical principles for young and older adults, in sun or shade, to improve current estimates" [5]
underlining
"a vast underestimation of risks by the 35 °C Tw model in hot-dry conditions" [5]
See e.g. Fig. 2 [5] https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-023-43121-5/figures/2
Daniele de Rigo
7/
In [4], the Authors
"demonstrate that the geographic range and frequency of noncompensable heat extremes will increase rapidly, given only moderate continued increase in global average #temperatures. This implies that, in the near future, a substantial portion of the world’s population will be exposed to these noncompensable environmental conditions" [4]
"#ClimateChange is driving the emergence of #ExtremeEvents far outside of the range of historical experience across the world" [4]
Daniele de Rigo
6/
Again [3]: "a significant portion of the world’s population will experience [...] prolonged exposures to uncompensable #ExtremeMoistHeat.
Humans will struggle to adapt to these conditions in a warmer world as they will present widespread challenges across many aspects of food–energy–water security, human health, and economic development including in the world’s most populous and most vulnerable regions" [3]
In addition, "the magnitude to which #spillover effects take place is unknown" [3]
Daniele de Rigo
5/
On humid heat, recalling some studies [3][4][5]
[3] used "laboratory-measured [...] thresholds [...], to project future #HeatStress #risk from bias-corrected climate model output.
These vulnerability thresholds substantially increase the calculated risk of widespread potentially dangerous, uncompensable humid heat stress.
Some of the most populated regions, typically lower-middle income countries in the moist tropics and subtropics, violate this threshold well before 3 °C of warming" [3]
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