If Twitter moves to it, I'll adopt it probably. But if it's just one Bluesky server, it'll probably be like Matrix where it can federate in theory but nobody does.
The new protocol is kind of exciting. But also really annoying. We already reinvented federation once from GNU Social to ActivityPub. How many times are we gonna get lead around like circus monkeys until we make this thing popular? We have a working solution already.
It's really a matter of time until federation makes Twitter obsolete. But we didn't do the thing yet. We gave them too much time, so they've recognized it and put their foot in the door.
@alex@gleasonator.com I am starting to believe that federative technology will never become mainstream or adopted en mass. First and foremost, people don't "get it". It's simple, but I genuinely think most people either don't care or are otherwise too stupid to comprehend what is being said. Ergo, it's difficult to market.
Furthermore, even people who do fully understand it don't actually like the reality of a federated universe. They might like the idea of federation, but ultimately they just want a small, tightly-controlled community of like-minded individuals with spoon-fed content and heavy-handed moderation. The people who don't want that are usually of the other extreme: they don't want any moderation whatsoever. And most of those people are societal rejects and constitute a minority of users.
There are no normal people here.
As for me? I just want Misskey markdown to fucking work consistently.
30K people signed up to the waitlist (including me), because of course they did because Twitter has a huge reach.
But will those users actually stay? That's the difference between Mastodon and Soapbox. Mastodon has like 4 million dead accounts. Soapbox has active communities that stick around.
I have no doubt Bluesky will attract millions of people to sign up, but making it stick is harder.
@alex@GoodPerson@Moon I feel like signups is a dead KPI, active hourly users after 3 months is much more of a useful number - daily users may check in once or twice, but active hourly users build the community