"These men are completely known quantities engaged in the first presidential rematch since 1956. Even someone who has been in a coma since late 2019 would have pretty firm opinions about them. But the Democratic optimists would have you believe that an electorally significant chunk of voters will soon change their minds."
I think there is a low level panic bubbling beneath the surface of the Democratic electorate.
People tell themselves Biden has beaten Trump before, that Democrats have overperformed post-Dobbs, and that Trump's various legal problems will catch up with him before the election.
But people remember how Clinton was supposed to be a surefire winner in 2016, too, and how popular vote victories don't matter compared to the electoral college, where razor thin margins can turn the outcome.
I say this because there's an angry backlash to criticism of Biden, especially suggestions that his border and Gaza policy are turning off the very voters he needs to win in November.
The insistence that Biden is doing everything right and it's young, Arab, and other voters who have gone beyond the pale trying to tank his candidacy reflects a deep sense of insecurity about the actual odds against Trump.