So here's what I see as the barriers for both endeavors. Bsky's biggest problem is straight forward. It seems to operate under a model that requires centralized revenue. They gotta start making money at some point. https://bsky.app/profile/polotek.bsky.social/post/3kkjqelc3ql2w
The promise of mastodon is that it doesn't have to stay vanilla. And it doesn't have to stay coherent or uniform. It provides a foundation of social media messaging. But people can put their own spin on top of it to add more value.
But there was also an underlying issue with social media. Because it was controlled by corporate interests and needed to make billions of dollars, there were constraints on what it could be. It has to stay vanilla so it can support the presence of brands.
Both of these are good I think. Twitter was hugely valuable for many different reasons. And we need to recreate that value in a way that isn't controlled by a bigoted and narcissistic megalomaniac. I don't know if bsky can succeed at that. But I hope it does.
I can't entirely back this up, but here's what I'm feeling. Bluesky could grow to be a close approximation of what Twitter was. That will be cool for those who miss the golden age of Twitter. But mastodon has the potential to be something new and different. It's not constrained by what came before.
I've spent significant time on Bluesky and Mastodon for the last few months. They're very different experiences, and I like them both for different reasons. But I think they are headed in different directions. They're going to continue to diverge in terms of what they offer.