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   Futurist Jim Carroll (jimcarroll@futurist.info)'s status on Friday, 29-Dec-2023 22:38:48 JST Futurist Jim Carroll

   Daily Inspiration: "Cast a more skeptical eye towards many trends, forecasts and predictions” - Futurist Jim Carroll

   You need to be a little more skeptical of predictions about tomorrow.

   Trust me, as a futurist who makes his living advising people of my predictions for tomorrow, it pains me to write that sentence - but I've been thinking about this strategy for quite some time.

   Much of this mindset has come from the rather dismal record of forecasting by economists and financial pundits in the last few years; after all, it was just over 14 months ago that  Bloomberg predicted - with 100% certainty -- that we would see a recession in 2023.

   It never happened, of course.

   The darned global economy kept chugging along, with month after month and quarter after quarter of continuous growth. Yet at the same time, global economic forecasters and financial pundits kept peddling their forecasts of doom and gloom, almost seeming to will for it to happen - and then seemed apoplectic and angry when it never transpired!

   Failed predictions and missed forecasts? I got to thinking about the issue of failed forecasting in the last few days, as I have watched global meteorologists try to make sense of the current weather conditions in North America and increasingly, it seems, fail to do so.

   That’s why this is Strategy #23 of my 24 Strategies for 2024 series.
   Cast a bit more of a jaded eye on the words of wisdom of tomorrow from those you follow!

   Including, perhaps, me! Or, maybe not. I'm not sure - I can't predict what might happen!

   Read the rest of the original post: https://jimcarroll.com/2023/12/daily-inspiration-24-strategies-for-2024-23-cast-a-more-skeptical-eye-towards-many-trends-forecasts-and-predictions/

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     Greengordon (greengordon@spore.social)'s status on Saturday, 30-Dec-2023 01:54:13 JST Greengordon

     in reply to

     @jimcarroll

     Actually competent economist JK Galbraith: "The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable."

     "The darned global economy kept chugging along, with month after month and quarter after quarter of continuous growth. Yet at the same time, global economic forecasters and financial pundits kept peddling their forecasts of doom and gloom, almost seeming to will for it to happen - and then seemed apoplectic and angry when it never transpired!"