Paul Cantrell
“Trump will thus enter the general-election campaign early next year with momentum, backed by growing political and financial resources, and an increasingly unified party.
“Can the same be said of Biden? Is Biden’s power likely to grow over the coming months? Will his party unify around him?”
“The Democratic coalition is likely to remain fractious as the Republicans unify.”
And how do fascists win? When anti-fascist coalitions break.
Gift link:
https://wapo.st/47QyFY1
Paul Cantrell
“Biden…does not enjoy the usual advantages of incumbency. Trump is effectively also an incumbent, after all. That means Biden is unable to make the usual incumbent’s claim that electing his opponent is a leap into the unknown. Few Republicans regard the Trump presidency as having been either abnormal or unsuccessful.”
Paul Cantrell
“Trump, meanwhile, enjoys the usual advantage of non-incumbency, namely: the lack of any responsibility. Biden must carry the world’s problems like an albatross around his neck, like any incumbent.”
“Trump enjoys some unusual advantages for a challenger, moreover. Even Ronald Reagan did not have Fox News and the speaker of the House in his pocket.”
Paul Cantrell
“Trump also enjoys another advantage…Rarely in American history has democracy’s inherent messiness been more striking. In Weimar Germany, Hitler and other agitators benefited from the squabbling of the democratic parties.
“German voters increasingly yearned for someone to cut through it all and get something — anything — done. It didn’t matter who was behind the political paralysis, either, whether the intransigence came from the right or the left.”
Paul Cantrell
@Dseitz
Yeah, it’s a facile comparison to make a useful point. Different place different time, obvious, and analogies really don’t run that deep — for example, “Catholics versus Communists” isn’t a major driving force in our national politics — but I do think two broad common principles stand:
1. Fascism thrives best when there’s widespread dissatisfaction with the current state of things.
2. Fascists rise to power when anti-fascists fail to form a unified coalition.
Dan Seitz
This passage is so historically inaccurate it makes me want to scream.
Weimar Germany is so fundamentally different from the current United States in just about every possible way that comparisons are basically useless.
There's a lot wrong with this piece but this is the most glaring.
Paul Cantrell
@Dseitz
I too am optimistic that the anti-fascist coalition has a strongly case to make:
- The GOP will end abortion rights
- The GOP will end democracy
- And those people are idiots
…and I really do think that’s a winning case. I’m just not going to let myself get complacent about it. At the very, very least, it’s a case we have to organize to actively make for the next year. Any presumption of success here is deadly, even if the odds are in our favor.
Dan Seitz
Even then a theoretical clean slate GOP contender will still be stuck defending GOP orthodoxy which is tax cuts and wage reductions. And that assumes they'll be able to make that economic message stick when voters are still pissed over abortion rights.
Dan Seitz
Like are voters happy with Biden? No. And if he's not up against Chump that will be a real problem. But they REALLY hate Chump.
Dan Seitz
"Voters are angry at the economy so clearly they will vote for a guy who's entire public persona is 'cartoonish rich oaf'." That just doesn't make a lot of sense.
Dan Seitz
I can agree with the points but the piece does not make a strong case about the latter and isn't interested in the possible causes of the former. He's just assuming the GOP will benefit.
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