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simsa03 (simsa03@gnusocial.jp)'s status on Monday, 27-Nov-2023 03:42:46 JST simsa03 Martin Fornusek, "Bild: US, Germany quietly seek to prod Ukraine to negotiate" https://kyivindependent.com/bild-us-germany-allegedly-seek-to-prod-ukraine-to-negotiate/
The German tabloid BILD claims to have a government source (US? DE?) claiming that Washington and Berlin try to nudge Ukraine towards negotiations with Russia via restrictions in arms deliveries.
Obviously it would explain the restraint of both countries in the delivery of essential military equiptment. But a mere signalling to Russia that Ukraine's allies are not willing to support Ukraine to win the war would result in Russia refusing to negotiate at all and to wait out Ukraine's exhaustion. So this "story" doesn't make much sense to me.
Things may be different when taking into account the recent proposal by the former NATO secretary general Anders Fogh Rasmussen that Ukraine could cede Crimea and the four oblasts occupied by Russia and become a NATO member on the territory it holds:
Patrick Wintour, "Ex-Nato chief proposes Ukraine joins without Russian-occupied territories" https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/nov/11/ex-nato-chief-proposes-ukraine-joins-without-russian-occupied-territories
Interestingly, a similiar proposal in August of 2023 by the current secretary general's chief of staff Stian Jenssen drew anger from Ukraine and resulted in an apology by NATO:
Dan Sabbagh, "Nato official apologises over suggestion Ukraine could give up land for membership" https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/aug/16/nato-official-suggests-ukraine-could-give-up-territory-in-exchange-for-membership
Thus, to me the BILD story, if true, primarily makes sense not when read as attempt to persuade Ukraine to negotiate with Russia some kind of agreement resulting in a truce or frozen conflict, but to nudge Ukraine towards accepting a frozen conflict for now in order to bring the majority of Ukraine into NATO.
Problem with both scenarios: Russia annexed Crimea, and the four oblasts already acceded to the Russian Federation. Both presidents, Zelenskyy and Putin, would defy their respective constitution, violate their oath of office, and commit treason if they voluntarily gave up the four Ukrainian oblasts (and probably Crimea). Thus, only Zelenkyy agreeing to the deal, stepping down from office, facing charges of treason could pave the way for some such hybrid NATO-membership of a core Ukraine. Improbable but not impossible. And deepy disgraceful on the part of the West and for NATO.
#Ukraine