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1. Embed this notice
   feld (feld@bikeshed.party)'s status on Tuesday, 31-Oct-2023 02:24:28 JST feld

   in reply to

   • Wolfgang Lucht
   @W_Lucht I don't think there's any chance we're going to make it
   • Embed this notice
     Wolfgang Lucht (w_lucht@mstdn.social)'s status on Tuesday, 31-Oct-2023 02:24:29 JST Wolfgang Lucht

     "We conclude that the RCB (Remaining Carbon Budget) for a 50% chance of keeping warming to 1.5 °C is around 250 GtCO2 as of Jan 2023, equal to around six years of current CO2 emissions. For a 50% chance of 2 °C the RCB is around 1,200 GtCO2."

     An update to the IPCC's CO2 budgets, which are several years old, in terms of newer data and updated methods. NOT good news.

     Follows a previous paper in ESSD by Forster et al. (2023) with comparable findings.

     Open access:
     https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-023-01848-5