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1. Embed this notice
   simsa02 (simsa02@mastodon.social)'s status on Sunday, 08-Oct-2023 04:53:27 JST simsa02

   in reply to

   • Mark Stoneman
   • Ulrike Franke

   @markstoneman @rikefranke
   One goal is to undermine the rapprochement of Saudi Arabia and Israel. Because if both states find something like a negotiated settlement, that would put a two-state solution in far distance. It also would benefit financially Abbas from the PA. OTOH, today is Putin's birthday, and Russia and Iran are allies, so it's reasonable to assume that they create a second front in the Middle East.

   • Embed this notice
     Mark Stoneman (markstoneman@zirk.us)'s status on Sunday, 08-Oct-2023 04:53:28 JST Mark Stoneman

     in reply to

     • Ulrike Franke

     @rikefranke It might make sense if you bring third parties into the story. If Saudi Arabia and Israel were working toward a normalization of relations, Iran would be unhappy. Since Iran supports Hamas financially and militarily, it must have some influence over Hamas that it could use that to try and isolate Israel. Israel's reaction could very well create an outcome Iran wants: Israeli isolation. But I've been wondering the same thing: how does this help the Palestinian cause as such? Does it?

   • Embed this notice
     Ulrike Franke (rikefranke@bagarrosphere.fr)'s status on Sunday, 08-Oct-2023 04:53:30 JST Ulrike Franke

     in reply to

     Looks like Hamas has succeeded in an attack that the IDF and Israeli intelligence services did not foresee. That is a big success for them.
     However, I wonder what the long term plan is - such an attack is likely to lead to *massive* retaliation. So what’s the expected gain?

   • Embed this notice
     Ulrike Franke (rikefranke@bagarrosphere.fr)'s status on Sunday, 08-Oct-2023 04:53:31 JST Ulrike Franke

     “Hamas’s ability to launch such a well planned attack from within the confines of the impoverished, hemmed-in Gaza Strip, which is surrounded by Israeli military fences and checkpoints, suggests a massive intelligence failure that will send shockwaves — and fear — through Israeli society.”

     Audacious Hamas attack is a pivotal moment for Israel
     https://on.ft.com/3rGyluY