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   HistoPol (#HP) 🥥 🌴 (histopol@mastodon.social)'s status on Tuesday, 29-Aug-2023 07:26:55 JST HistoPol (#HP) 🥥 🌴

   (1/n)
   #Scenarios 4 the #ClimateBreakdown by the The #Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (#PIK)

   👉IMO, governments around the 🌎 are not telling their populations the truth about the next 30 years👈
   via #WaPo
   as of 05/12/22

   The @wapo@twitter.com has asked one of the leading institutes on #ClimateChange, @PIK_Climate@twitter.com, to reasses 2020 climate scenarios.

   With the world's "leaders" failing to reach aggressive + binding actions on climate protection, earth is currently heading towards a catastrophic..

   • Embed this notice
     HistoPol (#HP) 🥥 🌴 (histopol@mastodon.social)'s status on Tuesday, 29-Aug-2023 07:26:43 JST HistoPol (#HP) 🥥 🌴

     in reply to

     • RickG

     @rgod8855

     ah, OMG. ICE.
     Well, every profession has different uses of acronyms, LOL.

     I'm not an engineer. Still, I understand and concur.
     Windpower for big ships is also a (niche) solution.

     How much: every 10th of a degree counts IMO.

     To be sure:
     I believe even the rate of the change ist presently still accelerating.
     We need an emergency break.

   • Embed this notice
     RickG (rgod8855@mas.to)'s status on Tuesday, 29-Aug-2023 07:26:44 JST RickG

     in reply to

     @HistoPol Sorry, ICE is internal combustion engines. As an engineer, I see the heat, sound, and pollution generated by ICE's as wasteful. Electrification is a much more efficient way to convert energy into mechanical work. I agree the only thing we can do is slow down the projected climate change. Not sure by how much.

   • Embed this notice
     HistoPol (#HP) 🥥 🌴 (histopol@mastodon.social)'s status on Tuesday, 29-Aug-2023 07:26:45 JST HistoPol (#HP) 🥥 🌴

     in reply to

     • RickG

     @rgod8855

     I did not doubt that, nor did I see a contradiction of any sort.
     Why is the "#ClimateChange" argument oversold?

     Yes, the only thing humanity might achieve in the medium term is to slow down the GROWTH RATE of the #ClimateCatastrophe (my personal opinion, based on a veteran #climatologist.)

     I am exasperated that we are not undergoing mass-building projects (agriculture, water management, housing - see German thread.)

     BTW, I am not familiar with "ICE machines"...?

   • Embed this notice
     HistoPol (#HP) 🥥 🌴 (histopol@mastodon.social)'s status on Tuesday, 29-Aug-2023 07:26:47 JST HistoPol (#HP) 🥥 🌴

     in reply to

     • RickG

     Hi @rgod8855

     Yes, you got my point. The communication of governments must change.

     How to live with the #ClimateCatastrophe (it is no "change" anymore. Per definition, this entails a change over a very extended period of time.)

     I think there are solutions, some of which I have discussed in this convo in German.--You can read it using the translate function of some Fediverse tools (e.g. FediLab), though.

     Considering re-writing and reposting it in English some time. No plan yet, though.

   • Embed this notice
     RickG (rgod8855@mas.to)'s status on Tuesday, 29-Aug-2023 07:26:47 JST RickG

     in reply to

     @HistoPol I should say I'm very pro de-fossilization to the fullest extent possible for a variety of reasons (pollution and health concerns, reliability of ICE machines, over drilling, etc.), just that the climate change argument for doing so is oversold. Between population growth and expansion due to underdeveloped countries to become fully developed, there is no going back and even slowing down carbon footprints is unlikely.

   • Embed this notice
     RickG (rgod8855@mas.to)'s status on Tuesday, 29-Aug-2023 07:26:48 JST RickG

     in reply to

     @HistoPol So, it's a pipe dream. We will need to figure out how to live with climate change. Eventually, mother earth will stop us and move on without us.

   • Embed this notice
     HistoPol (#HP) 🥥 🌴 (histopol@mastodon.social)'s status on Tuesday, 29-Aug-2023 07:26:49 JST HistoPol (#HP) 🥥 🌴

     in reply to

     (15/n)

     "...temperatures back down again in the second half of the century, 👉the need for these interventions can be extremely large."👈

     “Post 2050, these scenarios are *really challenging* because they require a very large amount of carbon dioxide removal to return temperature to below 1.5 degrees after a #HighOvershoot,”

     That is where the world is currently..."

   • Embed this notice
     HistoPol (#HP) 🥥 🌴 (histopol@mastodon.social)'s status on Tuesday, 29-Aug-2023 07:26:49 JST HistoPol (#HP) 🥥 🌴

     in reply to

     (16/16)

     "...heading."

     In brief, the question is whether human society is heading into the abyss, or whether technological progress will really be able to save humanity and thousands of other species from extinction?

     We haven't got any more months to waste.
     The #WarInUkraine
     must come to an end, and a benign climate for humans rescued.

     /END

     #ClimateCatastrophe
     #ClimateEmergency

   • Embed this notice
     RickG (rgod8855@mas.to)'s status on Tuesday, 29-Aug-2023 07:26:49 JST RickG

     in reply to

     @HistoPol I don't see any workable scenario. Fossil fuel elimination isn't practical unless removing all steel, concrete, and glass manufacturing is practical because there are no green energy solutions for those products. There are 1.5 billion fossil cars in the world - can we realistically stop them all quickly?

   • Embed this notice
     HistoPol (#HP) 🥥 🌴 (histopol@mastodon.social)'s status on Tuesday, 29-Aug-2023 07:26:50 JST HistoPol (#HP) 🥥 🌴

     in reply to

     (13/n)

     "...This would 👉require total or a *near total phaseout* of fossil fuels, widespread electrification of the world’s energy systems and major fuel shifts in transportation to electric vehicles or the use of other fuels👈 such as hydrogen or biofuels, among other innovations.

     The other choice is 👉to accept a fallback world in which the *temperature significantly overshoots 1.5C during the century*.👈

     [PS:
     So, World this I'd what it is--at least--it is

   • Embed this notice
     HistoPol (#HP) 🥥 🌴 (histopol@mastodon.social)'s status on Tuesday, 29-Aug-2023 07:26:50 JST HistoPol (#HP) 🥥 🌴

     in reply to

     (14/n)

     "...going to be, because the no-known accelerated melting of pole ice was probably not yet factored in‼️]

     With temperatures expected to be between 1.6 and 1.8C above preindustrial levels through the 2040s, 2050s and 2060s in most of these scenarios, that would 👉raise the odds of unexpected #ClimateCatastrophes.👈

     But 16 scenarios allow for such a “#HighOvershoot” and are considered “reasonable”

     To drive...

   • Embed this notice
     HistoPol (#HP) 🥥 🌴 (histopol@mastodon.social)'s status on Tuesday, 29-Aug-2023 07:26:51 JST HistoPol (#HP) 🥥 🌴

     in reply to

     (10/n)

     "...When we change the assumption to a reasonable [scenario] for carbon dioxide removal and storage underground, [only] 👉four paths to 1.5°C remain on the chart. 👈
     👉And when we look at only reasonable assumptions, there is *no path left*‼️.👈

     [PS:
     In other words, there is currently no scenario that will let us limit #GlobalWarming to an an already signicant global-warming target of just +1.5°C/ 2°F.
     In one sentence: We are f*cked‼️
     There is a silver lining, though:]

     "Still..."

   • Embed this notice
     HistoPol (#HP) 🥥 🌴 (histopol@mastodon.social)'s status on Tuesday, 29-Aug-2023 07:26:51 JST HistoPol (#HP) 🥥 🌴

     in reply to

     (11/n)

     ...looking at low or no overshoot scenarios, we can [then] bring back 👉11 paths by choosing challenging‼️ assumptions instead of only reasonable ones.👈

     Much more dramatic #CarbonRemoval from the atmosphere, storing it either underground or in forests and agricultural landscapes. The majority of 👉these scenarios require us to be able to subtract over 7 billion tons per year from the atmosphere by 2050👈.

     This will require a huge scale up of interventions like #CarbonCapture..."

   • Embed this notice
     HistoPol (#HP) 🥥 🌴 (histopol@mastodon.social)'s status on Tuesday, 29-Aug-2023 07:26:51 JST HistoPol (#HP) 🥥 🌴

     in reply to

     (12/n)

     ...and storage, which only has an estimated capacity of about 43 👉million👈 tons per year today.

     Some scenarios also 👉require dramatic transformations of energy use👈 thanks to a combination of #renewables and vastly expanded energy efficiency.
     Many require the carbon intensity of energy use — how much #CO2 is emitted per unit of energy consumed — to decrease by over 80 percent by 2050...."

   • Embed this notice
     HistoPol (#HP) 🥥 🌴 (histopol@mastodon.social)'s status on Tuesday, 29-Aug-2023 07:26:52 JST HistoPol (#HP) 🥥 🌴

     in reply to

     8/n
     "...world is an unsettling prospect."👈

     [PS:
     ...to which humanity, and in particular governments around the 🌎 must finally face up and about the high likelihood of which they 👉must tell their populations the whole dire truth: #Overshoot, we can only try to assuage the effects of the #ClinateCatastrophy for today's adults!👈

     #WakeUp and live up to the #ClimateEmergency!]
     ]

     Next, it is "...worth focusing on those 26 scenarios that allow for only a “low” overshoot (or none at all)...

   • Embed this notice
     HistoPol (#HP) 🥥 🌴 (histopol@mastodon.social)'s status on Tuesday, 29-Aug-2023 07:26:52 JST HistoPol (#HP) 🥥 🌴

     in reply to

     (9/n)

     "...Many of these scenarios 👉require the world, by mid-century, to go well beyond the popular “net zero” goal for fossil fuel emissions.
     Rather, the world will have to be removing more carbon dioxide from the atmosphere👈 than it is putting in — “net negative.” And that will require the wide-scale deployment of nascent “#CarbonCapture” technologies to remove what is already present,..."

     [PS:
     ...and You, dear reader, might well asses the likelihood of this yourself...]

   • Embed this notice
     HistoPol (#HP) 🥥 🌴 (histopol@mastodon.social)'s status on Tuesday, 29-Aug-2023 07:26:53 JST HistoPol (#HP) 🥥 🌴

     in reply to

     6/n
     ..."Out of more than 1,200 scenarios [the @wapo@twitter.com had analyzed] — some with temperatures rising as high as 5°C above preindustrial levels —👉 only 230 paths leave our planet below 1.5°C before the end of the century."👈

     [Note: this was published half a year before the now possibly imminent breakdown of the poles' ocean-cooling system, at least in #Antarctica:

     https://mastodon.social/@HistoPol/110933038351485958]

     "Next,...scenarios that conflict with near-term reality,..."

   • Embed this notice
     HistoPol (#HP) 🥥 🌴 (histopol@mastodon.social)'s status on Tuesday, 29-Aug-2023 07:26:53 JST HistoPol (#HP) 🥥 🌴

     in reply to

     7/n
     ...were eliminated im this funnel, "...leaving 112 paths that get us to 1.5°C by 2100."

     "There are two different kinds of scenarios that leave the planet, in the year 2100, below 1.5C of warming. One involves a “#HighOvershoot,” but 👉spending decades above 1.5C in such a..."

   • Embed this notice
     HistoPol (#HP) 🥥 🌴 (histopol@mastodon.social)'s status on Tuesday, 29-Aug-2023 07:26:54 JST HistoPol (#HP) 🥥 🌴

     in reply to

     4/n
     ... #PotsdamInstitute now shows, in my understanding, that 👉avoiding an *at least* 1.8°C average temperature has become all but *unlikely*.👈

     Combining this analysis with other research regarding sea-level rise, this means that at least 60,000 residents of small island states..

   • Embed this notice
     HistoPol (#HP) 🥥 🌴 (histopol@mastodon.social)'s status on Tuesday, 29-Aug-2023 07:26:54 JST HistoPol (#HP) 🥥 🌴

     in reply to

     5/n
     ...will lose their mother country.

     This is not even the worst news, however.

     A +2°C scenario most likely will entail a total of about 👉5 million ocean-rise #ClimateRefugees👈, according to scientific research:

     https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/aaac87/meta?itid=lk_inline_enhanced-template...

   • Embed this notice
     HistoPol (#HP) 🥥 🌴 (histopol@mastodon.social)'s status on Tuesday, 29-Aug-2023 07:26:55 JST HistoPol (#HP) 🥥 🌴

     in reply to

     2/n
     ...👉"high-#overshoot" scenario👈, at least for the period of the 2040s through the 2060s.

     Even 👉bringing temperatures down after that involves maturity of nascent technologies and extremely challenging action by all industrialized and industrializing countries.👈"

     "But with the..."

   • Embed this notice
     HistoPol (#HP) 🥥 🌴 (histopol@mastodon.social)'s status on Tuesday, 29-Aug-2023 07:26:55 JST HistoPol (#HP) 🥥 🌴

     in reply to

     3/n
     "...world having already warmed by more than 1.1 degrees Celsius (2 degrees Fahrenheit) above preindustrial temperatures [as per Nov., 2022,] 👉achieving the goal is in grave doubt."👈

     [To me, too, as of today, this, alas, seems quite unlikely for the foreseeable future, as many governments fail to be on track for even their low, self-determined #ClimateTargets.]

     Having "👉examined over 1,200 different scenarios for #ClimateChange over the coming century👈,..." the..."

   • Embed this notice
     HistoPol (#HP) 🥥 🌴 (histopol@mastodon.social)'s status on Thursday, 15-Aug-2024 07:35:48 JST HistoPol (#HP) 🥥 🌴

     in reply to

     • RickG

     @rgod8855

     Exactly.

     It could be dented, if more public transit became a #UBS, an #UniversalBasicService(s).