ikuo
My teacher husband and kids report that even some of the last remaining maskers at school have now stopped masking. 😷 😪
I wonder what is driving their decision-making. The wastewater data in my county has not changed in the last month; it's plateau-ed at roughly 2-3 times the levels from last spring's post-Omicron low.
More and more I know my family looks like we're the ones not accepting reality. I just know that #CovidIsNotOver and I'm not giving up on my family's health.
Paul Cantrell
@ikuo1000 @chargrille
COVID levels in wastewater in MSP are way down lately, lower than they’ve been in over a year and maybe heading towards low-since-testing-started territory. I wonder whether there’s some sense of safety that comes from distant communities? Maybe that’s where it came from?
Paul Cantrell
@ikuo1000 @chargrille
My reply was not so much about MSP as it was speculation that maybe people hearing about improvements in a distant region change their behavior in their own region. But if we’re talking MSP…
I’m sure seasonality is part of it. It’s not the whole story. We maybe saw seasonality as you describe in 2021, but not at all in 2022. See images below (second scaled so Omicron wave doesn’t dominate): low areas were Feb 2021, Jun/Jul 2021, Mar 2022, now.
https://metrocouncil.org/Wastewater-Water/Services/Wastewater-Treatment/COVID19-Research.aspx
ikuo
@chargrille @inthehands Seasonality occurred to me too. Maybe some of these previously covid-cautious people just associate covid & illness w/ winter & cold weather, so beautiful, warm, sunny weather makes them throw off their masks.
Every time we've had a low/low-ish period in wastewater, I've kept our masks because there was always chatter about new variants on the horizon. I'm not hearing as much chatter now, but still waiting for sustained actual lows before even considering going maskless.
Erin Conroy
If I had to guess, MSP is probably experiencing the seasonal lows that come from good weather & more socializing outside. Many areas in the South usually start to ramp up now as people retreat from heat. I would expect MSP levels to go back up seasonally as people socialize indoors more. But this is just a guess from observing overall patterns for the last 3 years.
Paul Cantrell
@ikuo1000 @chargrille
The patterns we’ve seen here seem better explained as a series of successive waves of variants. Below is much own (ugly, clumsy, sorry) plot of the raw MSP wastewater data.
Note: this is a ••log scale•• (so that exponential growth = straight lines & Omicron doesn’t dominate).
Each color is a successive variant. Now is first time in a long while we don’t have a new variant waiting in the wings.
Paul Cantrell
@ikuo1000 @chargrille
Delta (light orange, second from left) is the curious exception: stayed flat or slightly rising, then shot up. That sharp rise in Nov 2021 sure looks like seasonality! I also wonder whether Delta wasn’t also a series of success variants, unobserved because genetic testing wasn’t tracking such fine-grained variants yet.
Regardless, I’m cautiously hopeful for a summer here of safer conditions than we’ve had in a while.
ikuo
@inthehands I appreciate you zooming in because I hate the way Omicron distorts every graph out there.
Of course we can only speculate on others' behaviors, but along with perceived seasonality & being influenced by better news from other regions, I think not understanding the scale of graphs plays a role! To the average person, the non-zoomed-in graph of wastewater in my county makes it look like covid is low, when really it is only RELATIVELY low compared to Omicron.
Paul Cantrell
@ikuo1000 Yeah, Omicron was the kind of event that gave us the phrase “off the charts.”
In hindsight, it seems like Omicron might have saved us from an even more horrendous wave of deaths from Delta. Delta’s fatality rate was much higher, and it was on the upswing — until Omicron just wiped it out. A bitter comfort.
Paul Cantrell
@ikuo1000 All that.
Lack of ventilation improvements is one of the most under-hated COVID failures. Building owners can just do it, by fiat. No regulation necessary. No public backlash for institutions to navigate. No court challenges. And it would even save companies money by reducing illness! It even serves corporate self-interest! But orgs just…don’t.
ikuo
@inthehands Yeeess, exactly, not having a known worrisome variant on deck right now is giving me hope that conditions will continue to improve!
Though, for the record, I also can't help but worry how that good news might be outweighed by the total lack of mitigations right now - no ventilation improvements in buildings, no masks in healthcare, no free rapid tests, waning immunity and fewer people getting boosters. 😬
Paul Cantrell
@ikuo1000
I hear you, but I just don’t think that’s the case. We just lived through the largest pandemic in living memory, millions upon millions of deaths, and people tuned it out. There is no amount of death that would make people change their behavior as long as that death happens mostly out of sight.
People only respond to visceral, visual terror: compare COVID response to the national mobilization around 9/11.
ikuo
@inthehands Yes, good points!
Still, my pessimistic nature compels me to wonder if maybe it was a mixed blessing; lives saved is ALWAYS a good thing, but now I hear a lot of:
"Covid is over because Omicron is just a cold."
"It's good to get covid now because Omicron is so mild." (Completely ignoring that infection does not provide lasting immunity.)
If Omicron hadn't knocked out Delta, maybe more people would've continued to take covid seriously, ultimately keeping more people healthy? 🤷🏻♀️
ikuo
@inthehands Yes, you're right. I think I am a hopeful pessimist? Or maybe just a naive one. I always want to think that people are CAPABLE of being selfless and caring. But the more I see of people's true colors, the more I lean towards begrudging misanthropy!
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