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   Cat Hicks (grimalkina@mastodon.social)'s status on Monday, 21-Sep-2026 05:34:17 JST Cat Hicks

   Famously, doctors struggle with base rates and similar cognitive biases around likelihood

   (
   see: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/247373134_Physicians_neglect_base_rates_and_it_matters

   or

   https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1046/j.1365-2753.2001.00284.x
   )

   Really, we all struggle with base rates

   We are trained to think about population level averages. Our minds like to anchor on large known patterns.

   But most moments of detective work are about winnowing through conditional probabilities