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Final two paragraphs 3. Escalation is Too Attractive Right Now: The current situation offers Putin a significant temptation to escalate. With Trump not yet in office, such a move would not interfere with any immediate peace initiatives but could instead reinforce Trump’s argument for direct dialogue with Putin. Simultaneously, it would expose Biden to criticism for being the catalyst of the escalation while potentially discouraging Ukraine from further using long-range missiles. Putin may see the current situation as a strategic “in-between” moment—anticipating possible peace initiatives from Trump while emphasising what he views as the “irresponsibility” of Biden’s policy. Putin may seek to present the West with two stark choices: “Do you want a nuclear war? You will have it,” or “Let’s end this war on Russia’s terms.” This marks an extraordinarily dangerous juncture.

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Final two paragraphs 3. Escalation is Too Attractive Right Now: The current situation offers Putin a significant temptation to escalate. With Trump not yet in office, such a move would not interfere with any immediate peace initiatives but could instead reinforce Trump’s argument for direct dialogue with Putin. Simultaneously, it would expose Biden to criticism for being the catalyst of the escalation while potentially discouraging Ukraine from further using long-range missiles. Putin may see the current situation as a strategic “in-between” moment—anticipating possible peace initiatives from Trump while emphasising what he views as the “irresponsibility” of Biden’s policy. Putin may seek to present the West with two stark choices: “Do you want a nuclear war? You will have it,” or “Let’s end this war on Russia’s terms.” This marks an extraordinarily dangerous juncture.
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Reed Mideke (reedmideke@mastodon.social)'s status on Sunday, 05-Oct-2025 08:48:36 JST Reed Mideke
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Odd take from (knowledgeable and often insightful) Tatiana Stanovaya
"…offers Putin a significant temptation to escalate. With Trump not yet in office, such a move would not interfere with any immediate peace initiatives but could instead reinforce Trump’s argument for direct dialogue with Putin. Simultaneously, it would expose Biden to criticism for being the catalyst of the escalation while potentially discouraging Ukraine from further using long-range missiles"
https://x.com/Stanovaya/status/1858838585576735178

In conversation about 9 months ago from mastodon.social permalink