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Given these factors, the chances of success—defined as a fully functional, error-free replacement within two months—are extremely low, likely in the single-digit percentage range (e.g., 5-10% at best). This estimate assumes DOGE has exceptional resources and AI capabilities beyond what’s publicly known, but it’s tempered by the sheer complexity, the need for precision, and the lack of a realistic testing window. A more probable outcome is partial progress with significant disruptions, potentially requiring rollback or years of fixes post-launch. The stakes are high, and the margin for error is razor-thin.