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instead of an 11th solution i'm going to simply crosspost what i posted to fb today

Instead of proposing a solution to the tariff situation today I would like to take a step back and point out one way that politicians and others who think about the tariff situation, including experts responsible for responding to it, are likely to systematically come to the wrong answer unless they take steps to avoid doing so : Availability Bias [0]

When you're presented with a problem to solve [1], no matter how smart or educated you are, in order to consider the solution to the problem at hand you are likely to start with the solutions that are more similar to 'available' features of the problem or details immediately at hand. Even if they aren't the best or even a good solution - - from the neuron level up, parts of your brain which are more recently used (ie by thinking about the problem as posed) can 'recall' more recent details. These neurons are more ready to fire, ready to fire quicker, the details easier to remember, easier to give more fully and generally are mentally 'available'. It takes critical thinking to go through proposed solutions to weigh costs and benefits and to weigh whether or not they fit at all. It is much easier to just come up with a quick answer if the question as posed primes the problem solver with sufficient details for a potential solution. And if no critical thinking is done the solutions proposed are likely to be suboptimal, to say the least[12].

Potential solutions usually feel easier and feel more relevant than solutions you haven't thought about. Even if you've barely started thinking about a problem. Good Thinking[3] involves knowing that available solutions may not be the full set or even a representative set of solutions. Especially for complex problems with important consequences it is important[8] to not fall into the trap of just responding with an easily available, but bad solution.

There are various studies that have looked into whether or not availability bias exists and how much of a problem it can be. It has been the sort of thing that psychology has been looking into over the past 50-60 years or so, especially in labs run by people like Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman[2][4]. While there is a general problem with reproducibility in psychology research[5] including some of the research into the mechanisms involved in availability bias[6] the general problem consistently remains regardless of exactly how it works[7].

There are ways to specifically diffuse availability bias[9] if you suspect you are affected by it - mostly involving refusing to make a snap decision, reviewing more information and considering things more carefully and systematically. Getting your problem in writing can help, too and putting more of the problem solving work on paper/computer where it can be solved in a more rigorous way can help. There are many problems that once you fully state you can bring mathematics to help with solving for example. But sometimes the solution is to do nothing at all - to just let the universe do its thing and to let makyo and apparent problems dissolve themselves. Regardless of the best way to approach or even consider a problem[10] -- if you can avoid the pitfalls of availability bias generally, your problem solving will be just that much better generally.

Especially when emotions are involved, and people are excited[11] it is tempting to come to a quicker response and to short out rational thinking into a quick decision. And if you hear of a politician responding to an emotionally-charged problem, very quickly after it is presented, with a solution that sounds exactly like the problem(ie Trudeau coming to the conclusion that tariffs must be fought with tariffs, that a loss of an eye must be met with a loss of an eye, etc) -- you can bet that availability bias is likely in play.

While sometimes there really *is* a need for a proportional and equal response that looks exactly like the solution that you'd come up with with availability bias -- it is worth considering that if someone is biased that they could be making a mistake. Don't make the same mistake they are making just because they are too lazy to engage in good, rational thinking.

[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Availability_heuristic
[1] https://mega.nz/file/Z9B3WSAC#X2lf9XoERty3DiDZC9tioTiVYJF9QqqiwSZB-6FFpFQ
[2] https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/0010028573900339
[3] https://www.goodreads.com/review/show/6279011320
[4] https://www.goodreads.com/review/show/1873469062
[5] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Replication_crisis
[6] https://replicationindex.com/category/availability-heuristic/
[7] https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/38752479/
[8] https://www.goodreads.com/review/show/3079250051
[9] https://fs.blog/availability-bias-cognitive-distortion/
[10] https://www.goodreads.com/review/show/2157023421
[11] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gjTEBvZbIs8
[12] https://www.goodreads.com/review/show/7273088450

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