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Time series from each ECMWF ensemble member (from left to right over time) depicting 24 hour precipitation accumulations. A substantial number of ensemble members show a very heavy rain event around Feb 14, though some are completely dry--illustrating the high uncertainty involved.

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Time series from each ECMWF ensemble member (from left to right over time) depicting 24 hour precipitation accumulations. A substantial number of ensemble members show a very heavy rain event around Feb 14, though some are completely dry--illustrating the high uncertainty involved.
https://files.mastodon.social/media_attachments/files/113/959/613/329/697/610/original/57a4a45580e68981.png

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Daniel Swain (weatherwest@mastodon.social)'s status on Friday, 07-Feb-2025 08:58:01 JST Daniel Swain

Early signs of *potentially* concerning heavy rain event in SoCal wildfire zones next week (~Feb 14). *Uncertainty is high,* & range of outcomes at this early juncture is from virtually nothing to high-end flash flood/debris flow threat. But consider this an early heads-up. #CAwx

In conversation about 16 days ago from mastodon.social permalink