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It’s hard to overstate how traumatic the 2016 and 2020 elections were for many pollsters. For some, another underestimate of Mr. Trump could be a major threat to their business and their livelihood. For the rest, their status and reputations are on the line. If they underestimate Mr. Trump a third straight time, how can their polls be trusted again? It is much safer, whether in terms of literal self-interest or purely psychologically, to find a close race than to gamble on a clear Harris victory. At the same time, the 2016 and 2020 polling misfires shattered many pollsters’ confidence in their own methods and data. When their results come in very blue, they don’t believe it. And frankly, I share that same feeling: If our final Pennsylvania poll comes in at Harris +7, why would I believe it? As a result, pollsters are more willing to take steps to produce more Republican-leaning results.

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It’s hard to overstate how traumatic the 2016 and 2020 elections were for many pollsters. For some, another underestimate of Mr. Trump could be a major threat to their business and their livelihood. For the rest, their status and reputations are on the line. If they underestimate Mr. Trump a third straight time, how can their polls be trusted again? It is much safer, whether in terms of literal self-interest or purely psychologically, to find a close race than to gamble on a clear Harris victory. At the same time, the 2016 and 2020 polling misfires shattered many pollsters’ confidence in their own methods and data. When their results come in very blue, they don’t believe it. And frankly, I share that same feeling: If our final Pennsylvania poll comes in at Harris +7, why would I believe it? As a result, pollsters are more willing to take steps to produce more Republican-leaning results.
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Spocko (spocko@mastodon.online)'s status on Saturday, 02-Nov-2024 08:35:07 JST Spocko

Re: Nate Cohn’s new article on polling accuracy.
Angry Staffer says
"Basically, pollsters are terrified of being wrong again, so they’re flat-out ignoring “very blue” results.
As a result, pollsters are more willing to take steps to produce more Republican-leaning results.
They’re intentionally watering down the aggregate and making this race look deadlocked across the board. It’s crazy.
And it’s going to feed into Trump’s rigged election claims if Harris wins in a landslide"
#Polling sucks

In conversation about 20 days ago from mastodon.online permalink