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   theoldguy@qoto.org's status on Friday, 11-Oct-2024 23:49:58 JST TheOldGuy

   The numerical superiority of Russian forces over Ukraine on the battlefield will likely begin to decrease by the end of this year, according to American military analyst Michael Kofman.

   Kofman believes that while the Kremlin continues to pressure Ukraine, suffering high levels of attrition, it is now beginning to struggle under “very significant constraints.”

   “Battlefield advantage is likely to diminish as we enter this winter and look toward 2025,” said Kofman, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

   However, he cautioned against expecting Russia to run out of equipment or personnel soon. Still, he believes Moscow will not be able to sustain its current pace of attack for long.

   Kofman’s first explanation is that Moscow is replacing significant losses of equipment with Soviet-era weapons, but even these reserve stocks will not last indefinitely.

   “Russia is depleting its Soviet-era assets, and the production rate of new equipment is quite low compared to the battlefield losses. This means that the Russian military is increasingly forced to adapt tactics to minimize losses, which also reduces their ability to achieve any operationally significant breakthroughs,” says the expert.

   High payments to contract soldiers in Russia indicate that recruitment efforts are under pressure, he points out. Kofman believes that the Russian government will struggle to maintain the surge in bonuses and benefits it offers to new recruits.

   “It’s clear that, at this rate of losses, Russia’s contract recruitment campaign will not be sustainable. This doesn’t necessarily mean that Russia will face a manpower shortage soon, but it’s evident they are encountering difficulties,” Business Insider quotes Kofman.

   For instance, the British Ministry of Defense has estimated that the Kremlin will lose 1,000 soldiers daily during the coming winter, after suffering record daily losses in May and September.

   The slow and costly pace of hostilities has consequences not only for the front lines in Ukraine but also for Russia’s wartime economy. It remains unclear how long Moscow can continue increasing its war budget.