Your analysis is correct, which doesn’t change the fact that Russia’s “right to have be concerned” ends on other countries’ borders.
As a reminder, Russia first invaded Ukraine in 2014 when it had neutrality and non-NATO status enshrined in its constitution and Finland and Sweden weren’t in NATO, something that Russia will never get again! And the first small-scale war was actually triggered by Ukraine trying to join EU, not NATO.
This in my opinion entirely deconstructs the Russian narrative about its concerns - they are just another pretext of many, which Russia has mastered over the years. One reason why it mastered was that every new concern it raised was empathically picked up by the West and discussed ad nauseam as if the only thing that mattered in the world is what Russia is concerned about, and nobody else.
As another reminder, since 2000 Russia has invaded several countries and committed several genocides (Chechnya, Georgia, Moldova, Armenia, Syria), bullied all of its neighbours, telling them how to name and how not to name their streets or villages, arbitrarily stopped contracted fuel supplies as part of political blackmail in such trivial matters, interfered with media and elections and assassinated random people on their territories. But it was always “Russia’s concerns” that concerned everyone in Europe and USA :)
When Germany started to invest into Nord Stream 2 countries like Poland, Ukraine and Baltics raised their concerns, that moving fuel transfers to the extraterritorial pipeline will only encourage Russia to more aggressive behaviour against these countries. These concerns were dismissed… and that was exactly what happened.
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