post: AGI by 2027 is strikingly plausible. That doesn’t require believing in sci-fi; it just requires believing in straight lines on a graph. image: graph of "Effective Compute"??? vs. year. a line goes up over time, y axis is arbitrary. four points are highlighted- GPT2: preschooler GPT3: elementary schooler GPT4: smart high schooler then the line projects off into the future, by 2028 labeled as "automated AI researcher/engineer?"
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